Lufthansa in "panic mode"?

Today there is news (only in German as of now) that Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines are "downgrading" miles flown with Turkish Airlines in their frequent flyer program "Miles & More". Customers who fly with Turkish Airlines on will only get a quarter of the flown miles as status miles. Austrian has canceled the code sharing with THY altogether effective summer 2014. Also Lufthansa is thinking about reducing their code sharing with THY.
This looks a little bit like Lufthansa being in panic mode. In the last two years, there have been multiple opportunities for Lufthansa to set up a wide ranging partnership with THY to fend off the three large gulf carriers. But the Lufthansa management seemed to be confident to go their way without it. Now that Turkish Airlines expanded in Germany big way, flying to 14 destinations today and just announced another one (Kassel-Calden) and many customers including business class customers flying to the Far East prefer THY due to prices and service, Lufthansa reacts.
The only way this move makes sense is that LH has another big plan on the table. Last week there I saw there were news that Lufthansa and Emirates are talking to each other ... could there be another alliance a la Emirates/Qantas in the making?

Dubai Air Show

The Dubai Air Show is approaching and according to the press conference schedule it will start with a busy Sunday. Boeing has occasionally blocked two conference rooms at once, so we can conclude that they expect to have some announcements. But many deals are made perfect in the last minute, so many the bookings could be tentative. Just think of how the story between Qatar and Airbus went two years ago when U-Turn Al accused Airbus of not knowing how to build airplanes just to order some dozens an hour later...

I think it is out of question that the B777X - or the B777-8/-9 how we can call it now - will be the big star of the show. I don't think that the negative vote of the IAM regarding the contract offer from Boeing will have any impact on the orders from Emirates, Etihad, Cathay, Qatar(???) and who else looks for this aircraft. And although there seems to be some discussions about the engine thrust needed (A350-1000 anyone?) I don't think that bothers these airlines to order now. But it could lead to some new discussions between Boeing and Lufthansa (and GE probably) as I guess Lufthansa can very well sort out what impact on seat costs for their typical routes a more powerful (and therefore heavier and thirstier) engine and a heavier aircraft has. It is fair to believe Lufthansa was already offered a very good price, being the first airline to officially order the aircraft. But a further price reduction, based on the cost impact the more powerful engine for, say, 12 years is in the cards.

That will not undermine the business case for the new B777 family, of course. In fact, I wonder if we will see the B777-8/-9 to sell even faster than the B787? With the expected block buster orders from the Gulf carriers to begin with that could very well be...

What else can we expect?

Some orders for the A320neo and the A350 for Etihad maybe. Spicejet is rumored to lean towards the A320neo. Jet Airways is also in the running for the next round of narrowbodies and according to rumors have already ordered the B737MAX as an unidentified customer but wants the A320neo for JetKonnect. flydubai also could order narrowbodies as well as Air Arabia. Monarch Airlines said some weeks ago they are close to make an order, but that does not have to be in sync with the Dubai Air Show.

We could also see some engine decisions regarding the A320neo. There are a few large orders pending. The decisions from American Airlines will probably take a while as they have come out of bankruptcy and to sort out the merger with US Airways first. But there is Lion Air (174 A/C), easyjet (100 A/C), the second batch of Lufthansa (70 A/C), the second 50 A/C from Norwegian, Turkish Airlines (57 A/C) and many others...

There are probably also some engine orders open for the B787 that could be announced.

With the expected orders for the new B777 this Air Show will probably set a new record for orders in terms of value!

Lufthansa Widebody Order

Not surprisingly, Lufthansa gave a "soft launch" (as the aicraft is not officially launched by Boeing) for the B777X today by announcing to order 34 of the B777-9(X). Including 7 options and purchase rights the order could be for up to 64 aircraft of the type.
Also, Lufthansa ordered 25 A350-900 with 15 more options and 20 purchase rights.
One thing that was mentioned during the press conference is that the A350-900 was considered the right aircraft in it's class due to it's range. This is a little but surprising as Lufthansa often argued that today's aircraft often offer too much range and therefore carry to much wing (and therefore weight), unnecessary loosing efficiency. The B787-10 with it's "limited" range of "only" around 7000nm range therefore was tipped to be Lufthansa's favourite for the A340-300 replacement. But Lufthansa decided in favor of the A350-900 and thus more flexibility.
The B777-9 order is of course a huge endorsement for Boeing. I guess we will see a raft of orders now following until the end of the year (mainly during the Dubai Air Show together with an official launch I guess) and I would not be surprised if the new B777 would break the record and sell even faster than the B787.



The B777-9 in LH colours (copyright by Lufthansa)

The A350-900 in LH colours (copyright by Lufthansa)

Lufthansa "launches" another aircraft

Remember? It was Lufthansa who launched the Bombardier CSeries with it's "Letter of Interest" on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show 2008. Now, just days after the CSeries conducted the first flight, it looks like Lufthansa will launch the B777-9 with it's long awaited widebody order due this week (Supervisory Board meets on Wednesday).
Lufthansa has a long history of being the launch customer for new aircraft. Most notably probably for the B737 (-100 and -300), but also for the B747-400, B747-8I, the A310, A340 and the A321.
Not all of these aircraft were (or are) as successful as the B737 and the A321, but from the sales of the current B777-300ER one can expect that the B777-9 (and -8) will eventually be best-sellers.
This week will not just be a first flight week, but also a first order week...

Airbus raises order target

OK, John Leahy is a little bit late to acknowledge there are more orders to come this year (at least later than me) and he now expects more than 1000 orders, instead of more than 800 and the initial goal of more than 700. And as we know how John Leahy ticks, he never wants to under-deliver and we can be pretty sure that he already has the customers in mind which will make him reach that target.
At the end of June there were 758 orders. Then Easyjet got the OK from their shareholders to order 35 A320ceo and 100 A320neo. Then there is the MoU from Hong Kong Aviation for 60 A320neo and the MoU from Doric for 20 A380. Also there is an commitment for 2 more A380 from Lufthansa. The order from SAS for 8 A350-900 and 4 A330-300 needs to be firmed up also, as well as the order from Kuwait Airways for 25 aircraft. Here we are: 1012!
Then there are new orders still to be decided: Monarch, Vueling, Lufthansa (widebodies), flydubai, Air Canada and probably some others also.
Still room to lift the target once or twice...

Embraer EJets G2 launch at Paris Air Show

Embraer will host a press conference regarding commercial aviation during the Paris Air Show next week on Monday (see the press release here). My strong guess is that this is where we will see the official launch of the EJet G2 Series.

And I guess Embraer will not only announce the official go-ahead but also will announce one or more first customers for the three-member strong family.

Good days for the A320!

What a week for Airbus! John Leahy predicted at the beginning of last week during his presentation at the ISTAT conference that until the end of March Airbus will have more than 2000 orders for the A320neo. While the number itself is technically just as good as 1900 or 2100, it justifies once more the decision to go ahead with the neo program in December 2010. Boeing, as it seems, was really caught by surprise, despite Airbus was talking about the possible launch for months before deciding to launch the neo program.

Lufthansa

The Lufthansa order was not a big surprise. I wrote about that in an earlier post. Nico Buchholz, VP

Narrowbody Outlook 2013

After Boeing and Airbus unveiled their final order and delivery numbers for 2012 it is now time to turn to what is ahead. What will 2013 bring us in the narrowbody segment?

Let’s begin with deliveries – this is quite easy:

·         Airbus stabilizes their output rate at 42/month and will deliver 480-485 A320 family aircraft (ca. 11.5*42 as we have to take the summer break into account)

·         Boeing will increase the delivery rate towards  38 B737NG’s per month and therefore deliver between 450-460 narrowbodies.

·         Bombardier will deliver the first CS100 in 2014, so A & B are (probably for the last time) alone.

The Airbus vs. Boeing Ad-War

An „ad-war“ broke out, media says, when Airbus published an ad in several aerospace publications, accusing Boeing to lie when they compare performance of the B737MAX with the A320neo and the B747-8I with the A380.

A good summary can be found here. What I found amusing is that obviously the Pinocchio theme is a tit-for-tat response to spat over market share back in 1994...

One could see it a little bit differently: maybe the war was “broken” by Boeing when they began to publish their ads about B737MAX vs. A320neo and B747-8I vs. A380 performance?

But lets look at the facts:

Boeing always claimed that the B737-800NG has an 8% cost advantage versus the A320 an a per-seat basis and as the B737-800NG has a typical seating of 162 seats versus 150 seats in the A320 this means that the cost per flight are more or less equal, as the seat difference is exactly 8%.

Now Airbus claims that the A320neo needs 15% less fuel than the A320ceo. Boeing claims that the B737MAX needs 13% less fuel than the NG.

Let’s say fuel costs are 50% of overall (cash operating) costs.

Then the A320neo cost per flight is 92.5% of the A320ceo cost per flight (0.85*50% fuel costs + 50% other costs).

The B737MAX-8 cost per flight is 93.5% of the B737-800NG cost (0.87*50% fuel cost + 50% other costs).

So after reengining there is a slight advantage for the A320neo in terms of cost per flight.

On a per seat basis there is an advantage for the B737MAX-8 of 6.85%.

Of course, this is a very simplified view at the costs. Any change in maintenance costs of the airframe and the engines also play a role. But if you compare the LEAP-1A powered A320neo with the LEAP-1B powered B737MAX-8, the changes in engine maintenance costs should be comparable to the CFM56 powered A320ceo and B737-800NG.

The question is why Airbus and Boeing are “communicating” via ads? Airbus says that the Boeing ads might let “less sophisticated airlines” keep from talking to Airbus directly.

“Less sophisticated airlines”?

Of course, there are airlines which have a better aircraft performance analysis than other ones – the larger the airline, the better the capabilities, I guess. I know Lufthansa always does a very thorough analysis before buying any aircraft. Singapore Airlines also does very good work here as many others also. Air France probably as well does a good job here, although on the engine side thy seem to be always preferring a GE/CFM engine choice (if available), as the national player Snecma (Safran) is involved there.

But look at the recent comments from Estonian’s CEO about the CRJ900, calling the aircraft not competitive for markets with less than 80 seats (the CRJ900 has 88 seats at Estonian). So why, one could ask, did they choose an aircraft with more than 80 seats when they know they want to use it in markets with less than 80 seats?

Clearly, the department for aircraft performance analysis at Estonian – if there is one – lacks some competency, as well as all of the upper management, as they finally gave approval to buy the aircraft.

So Airbus in the end might have a point here in launching the counter-ad…

Lion Air - another Boeing-Airbus splitter?

In one of my recent posts I speculated about a large narrowbody order accompanying the launch of the low cost carrier from Lion Air and NADI, based in Kuala Lumpur and aimed to take on Air Asia. But Rusdi Kirana, owner of Lion Air, said that the aircraft will be B737-900ER and probably later on B737MAX-9 channeled through Lion Air's existing order book with Boeing.
Now there are news out, reporting that Kirana said that Lion Air needs more planes and Scott Hamilton predicts an order for 100 A320neo's to be knocking at John Leahy's door.
I remember (and found) a press article last year, a few weeks after the massive order from Lion Air for B737-900ER and B737MAX-9 was announced, in which John Leahy mentioned that Airbus and Lion Air already had a MoU in place, but then political pressure from the White House inhibited Lion Air from defecting from Boeing to Airbus. Who know - maybe the MoU is still valid?
It looks like there are two 100-aircraft-orders in the works in Toulouse. The other of course being for AirAsia. Reports last week said that this is not only for the A320neo - earlier reports suggested that the A320ceo is the aircraft to be ordered as Tony Fernandes said that AirAsia needs more planes "soon". I guess there will be also a nice number of A330-300 (presumably the new 240t version) and maybe more A350's in the deal. At last weeks ISTAT Europe the A330-300 was one of the most mentioned aircraft (in a positive way): Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa VP Fleet Strategy said that it is a "bloody profitable" aircraft for their North America destinations. But also AirAsia Co-Founder Conor McCarthy was very positive about the aircraft (but he also thanked god that AirAsiaX has just two A340-300 in the fleet).
The new (still to be announced) AirAsia order was public since Farnborough (or even earlier, I don't remember exactly). It will go to AirAsia's board in the coming days and then officially announced. I would guess the Lion Air order for A320neo's (if true) will be announced shortly thereafter.
As boring the summer was in terms of new aircraft orders (at least since Farnborough), as interesting might get the rest of the year...

Dreamliner ready to fly and "kill"

After getting FAA and EASA approval last week, yesterday also the Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau gave it's "thumbs up" for the B787-8. Launch customer All Nippon Airways can now go forward with it's plan to place the B787 into service.
After more than three long years of delays, the Dreamliner now becomes reality. And despite the first batch of aircraft will be overweight (one heard many different numbers) and the two competing engines obviously are in terms of SFC not where they should be, we can expect there now is an aircraft available that will bring economics never seen before.
The first international route ANA will fly with the B787 is Tokyo-Frankfurt.

AirFrance interested in A320NEO - litmus test for LEAP-X

Reuters and others today report that AirFrance is interested in the A320NEO. As AirFrance is one of the largest Airbus customers (I think actually in second place right beghind Lufthansa), this is not a big story - but before Airbus actually launched the A320NEO, AirFrance ofiicials said that a pure reengining would not be good enough. So their mind must have changed.
What is more important is, that once AirFrance will eventually order the A320NEO, sooner or later they have to commit to one engine or another. And as AirFrance is up to now the most natural and loyal CFM customer you can imagine - CFM is 50% owned by the Safran and CFM did a version of the CFM56-5B customised for the A318 only on AirFrance's request - it would be a disaster for CFM if AirFrance would decide in favour of the GTF and clearly a sign that there is something "wrong" in the development of the LEAP-X.
An interesting thing to watch...

The absent LEAP-X customers

It is very early to say anything about the long-term share of the Geared Turbo Fan and the LEAP-X on the A320neo. On the other hand it is notable that there are now three announced engine choices for the A320neo and none of them is in favour of the LEAP-X.

• ILFC opted for the GTF for at least 60 of their 100 aircraft (MoU with Airbus yet to be firmed up). They have an option for the GTF for the remaining 40 aircraft, but are in talks with CFM about the LEAP-X. Apparently ILFC is not yet convinced to order the LEAP-X.
• Indigo: this can be deemed as an easy win for P&W, although also CFM fought hard for this large deal. Indigo currently uses the V2500 on their "classic" A320.
• Lufthansa: as I wrote in another blog entry, the most important win for P&W so far. They initially ordered the V2500 for their A320, but when RR had problems with the High Pressure Compressor, they had to switch to the CFM56. By the time the A321 was launched, the V2500 then became Lufthansa's choice again - but for the A319 Lufthansa favoured the CFM56. I see two reasons for their split: one is to get a maintenance license for both engines, as Lufthansa Technik is a major player also in the engine maintenance business and saw business opportunities with third parties. Another reason is that the A321 typically flies on longer routes than the A320 and A319, where the better engine SFC of the V2500 plays a bigger role. On the other hand, the CFM56 could have an edge if you fly shorter routes and more sectors a day, as the CFM56 with it's single stage turbine has lower maintenance costs than the V2500. Now Lufthansa ordered the GTF for both the A320neo and the A321neo - a significant move in my eyes!

Now - who is the most probable LEAP-X customer, once ordering the A320neo? GECAS of course! There is no order for the A320neo from GECAS so far - this is no judgement so far, but if Airbus collects some more and potentially large orders by the time of the Paris Air Show in June and GECAS does not come on board, I have a sense that there could be a problem with the LEAP-X - as GECAS should be the customer who has the best insight into the engine.

Pratt did it again - with Lufthansa!

Pratt did it again! Third engine announcement, third win - a good run! And I would say, the third is the most important one, as I explained in earlier blog entry. The engine choice from Lufthansa for the PW1133G will probably be a signal for many other airlines, which do not have such a large and well-experienced technical department as Lufthansa. So we can expect that the Geared Turbo Fan will keep the lead position against the LEAP-X for the next months - and as we can expect a few more orders for the A320neo until the Paris Air Show in June, this could translate in many orders for the GTF as well.

Lufthansa next in line for A320/A321NEO

Lufthansa yesterday revealed that their supervisory board approved the purchase of 25 A320NEO and 5 A321NEO (along with 5 B777F, which is also significant, but another topic).
Why is Lufthansa significant? Firstly, because they have one of the best technical departments of all airlines. If they order an aircraft, often this is a sign for other airlines with less capable aircraft evaluation departments. Secondly, Lufthansa is the first european full service carrier (or "legacy airline" or "flag carrier", what ever one might call it) to commit to the NEO. Before we had two low cost airlines (Indigo, Virgin America), a south american airline (TAM) and ILFC as the first lessor. So the customer base not only gets larger, it gets more diversed, showing the attractiveness of the NEO for different kinds of business models. Well, not really surprisingly, as money savings (through fuel savings) works in every business model. But Nico Buchholz, fleet manager of the Lufthansa Group was to be convinced that the fuel savings are not eaten up by higher maintenance costs for the engines. The engine manufacturers always claimed lower (PW) or same (CFM)maintenance costs for their new engines when compared to their current offerings. But as the engines are running considerably hotter, I can understand why many are a little bit skeptical. We don't know yet which engine LH will have on their NEO's - but at least one of the two engine makers must have convinced them - or both: remember that LH is currently using CFM56 on their A319/A320 fleet and the V2500 on their A321's.
A few weeks ago Buchholz gave a interview to AirInsight where he talked about the CSeries, the NEO, the GTF and LEAP-X. He sounded very optimistic about the GTF and saw no risk in the gear anymore. Well, he (LH) is already a customer for the GTF via the CSeries...
The NEO order does not include any A319NEO. This might be a sign of more orders for the CSeries from Lufthansa, especially for the CS300, in the future - they still have 30 options along the 30 firm ordered aircraft.
This morning I read an article about the ISTAT meeting early this week which was very interesting: apparently the lessors reversed their opinion about the NEO from what they thought prior to the launch last October. They now think that residual values for the "Classic A320" would not immediately fall. I argued in October 2010 after the ISTAT meeting why I think that would not happen.
Even Steve Udvar-Hazy, who had no good word for the NEO last year, said that it was the "most sensible thing" for Airbus to do.

The Qantas A380 engine failure - a disaster for Rolls Royce?

A first serious incident happened with an A380 – the first Qantas A380, registered VH-OQA, made an emergency landing in Singapore, not long after taking off from the same airport.

Pictures show that the aft part of the No.2 Trent 900 nacelle is missing. Eye witnesses from the ground said that there was a loud bang (or explosion) and trails of smoke after that.

All this points to an uncontained failure. In recent months we saw two other uncontained failures in RR engines – first a RB211, also with Qantas, but on a B747-400 and then the Trent1000 on a testbed in Derby.

If at least the Trent1000 failure and the -so far- suspected failure in the Trent 900 of the A380 are in any conjunction remains to be seen. At least it is not good publicity for Rolls Royce in a time that is not easy for the No.2 engine maker:

• Deliveries of the Trent 900 are, due to the production problems and slow ramp-up of the A380, not in numbers that were anticipated in the business case. Any profit from this engine program is delayed by years (the same is also true for the GP7000, of course).
• Even heavier probably , the Trent 1000 drags on profit margins. The 787 is late by almost three years – if the first delivery in mid-February will be met. According to the original ramp-up plan, there should have been around 200 B787 in service by now, maybe half of if powered by the Trent 1000. The performance inprovement programs, aimed to meat the promised fuel burn at the aircraft probably doubled development costs.
• Development of the Trent XWB is in full swing, costing a lot of money, too.

So one could suspect that RR is running into a cash problem. Luckily there are the Trent 700, the leading engine for the A330, and the V2500 and Airbus upping deliveries for the A320. But if these two "cash cow" programmes can save RR in the long run, if there would be a main technical problem in the Trent 900/1000 (and maybe XWB), is questionable. A fundamental technical problem, a desígn fault, could end up in the grounding of the whole Trent powered A380 fleet. Qantas grounded their fleet of six A380 immediately after the incident, Singapore would be hit heavy with eleven A380 in their fleet today, Lufthansa so far took delivery of four aircraft.

It is too early to call today’s failure a disaster for Rolls Royce (and subsequently, for Qantas, Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa and, if the worst comes to the worst, Boeing and all their B787 Trent 100 customers) – but the possibility is there…

Update: meanwhile is is obvious that an uncontaines failure happened. Pictures are showing damage to the wing - Singapore Airlines effectively grounded their fleet also. Officially, all flights are just "delayed" until the engines are inspected, but a 100% inspection of the disks for such a failure would mean to take the engine apart...

Update 2:
Just found the preliminary report of the uncontained failure in the RB211-524, which happened on August 30th. It can be found here.
The key observations are (quoted from the report):

• All of the turbine blades had separated from the IP turbine disk.

• Blades from the three LP turbine stages were either fractured through the airfoil section or separated from the disk.

• The LP stage 1 nozzle guide vanes were destroyed. The remaining LP nozzle stages were substantially damaged.

• The LP turbine bearing and adjacent phonic wheel and speed probes were destroyed.

• The IP shaft was severed towards the aft end.

This picture is obviously a part of a turbine disk that fell on the island of Batam - we will soon hear if it is also the IPT disk - at least all baldes are missing.

The Trent 1000 failure also happened in the IP Turbine. If now yesterday's failure also can be tracde back to the IPT, I would be happy not to be employed in Derby...

ISTAT takeaways

The NEO question

The 17th european ISTAT conference is over – more than 550 people joined the event. For me it was my first ISTAT conference and a very special experience, as I am en engineer and at this conference I learned to see the aviation industry from a bankers, lessors and an appraisers perspective. And this perspective is very different – money (sometimes sadly) rules the world, as we all know.

And when I as an engineer and environmentally conscious guy of course would like to see a new engine on the current narrowbody families, the folks who live from buying, selling and financing aircraft are not really enthusiastic about it.

They fear that their current assets loose their value once the –NEO versions (or how ever they would be called) come to market.

But is that really the case, I wonder? There are 4,349 A320 family aircraft in operation as of September 30, according to the Airbus O&D spreadsheet, 3,411 B737NG were delivered by September 2010 (and just a few of them are out of service). There will be approximately 4,000 more A320/B737’s delivered by late 2015, when a reengined model could enter service.

These reengined aircraft will not hit the second-hand market for, say, another 10 years, at least not in greater numbers. So why on earth should there be a big hit on residual values for the not-NEO narrowbody aircraft? I don’t get it – but a I am just an engineer…;-)

One of the biggest opponent at the conference was the self-described “godfather of aircraft leasing” S. Udvar-Hazy, who described his role in the aviation industry as to ensure that the aircraft manufacturers don’t become like car manufacturers and bring a new model to market every four years or so. He also played down the benefits of the reengining: 15% fuel burn improvement would relate to 5% DOC improvements, given that fuel costs relate to about one third of direct operating costs. In my mind fuel costs will account for more than one third in the foreseeable future with oil prices just again climbing north of $80/barrel and the IEA raising the oil demand forecast.

But SUH further downplays the benefits when referring to John Leahy, who would like to raise list prices for the NEO’s by $7-8m, what it half of the benefit over 20 years operating a NEO aircraft. So, SUH says, the benefit is just 2-3%, which could be further eroded by higher costs for training maintenance personnel and lost commonality.

The environmental benefit he calls as PR benefit for the outside world. Tell that your neighbors living next to an airport: I am sure that an aircraft that is roughly 5dB (per measuring point) less noisy is more than just PR for them – it would be a benefit in quality of life! And as I explained earlier it can also be worth a few percentage points in COC, at least in Europe.

But then I find another inconsistency in SUH’s argumentation: if the new engine would be worth only 2% in DOC, why should the older aircraft loose their value. I can understand that they would loose value, if the newer aircraft is way better, but not when the difference is so small.

Lufthansa’s fleet chief Nico Buchholz on Monday called the improvements for the –NEO sufficient. On Tuesday he kind of backed away a little bit, saying that he would like to see a new aircraft, but would consider taking the second best option if the best one is not available.

CSeries

SUH was asked what he thinks about the CSeries, as at the Farnborough Airshow he ordered almost every aircraft but the CSeries. His message was clear (at least to me): the money he got from investors has to work, i.e. to make money. So he cannot place an order for an aircraft he gets four or five years later and only then can earn money through leasing rates. So we can expect an order for the CSeries once the aircraft is in production and available delivery slots are not too far away.

The Lufthansa Order and what it might tell us

Yesterday, Lufthansa ordered 48 aircraft to be delivered from 2012: 32 A320 family aircraft, eight A330-300 and 8 E195. When I first read the news, I wondered what that order means, when there are more efficient aircraft available in the next years (think of 787 vs. A330, CS100/300 vs. E195 or, further out, A320NEO  vs. A320(current).
To clarify the situation I would like to direct you to Jens Flottau's article in the Aviation Week:
Most of the A320 are for replacement of older A320 or the even older B737 (-300's and -500's). Swiss will get A320's and A321's, but no A319's - that makes sense, as the CS300 would be clearly more efficent. Swiss (via LH) only has ordered 30 CS100 so far, but there are 30 more options which could be converted to CS300 if needed.
So I don't think right now that the A320 order is a vote against the NEO, but it probably all depends on what Boeing does: if they would come up with a 737 replacement by 2020/21, I see LH switching from A. to B. for their (6 abreast) narrowbody fleet in the long run. The CSeries should have it's role also, not only at Swiss, but also as a Avro replacement at Brussels, maybe at Austrian, LH Italia - and who knows what happens to SAS - they would be happy to find a home in the LH Group and expressed interest in the CSeries earlier.
The question why Austrian does not get any new aircraft is sufficiently answered in the article.
Another question that struck me, is: why A330-300's! Why do they not order the B787 or the A350??? Does LH (aka Nico Buchholz) know something about these two natural candidates for A330 replacement we still do not know? Any further (and then probably significant) delay of the B787? Problems in the A350 development program? Fact is that the flight test program of the B787 has slowed down in the last two weeks (as well as the B747-8 flight tests did). Aircraft number 6 is also delayed further.
I guess we will have to wait until the Boeing Q3 earnings call until we hear what is going on there. Until then, have fun with wild guessing...