So what
could be behind the story? I see two possible scenarios:
1. Absolutely nothing! Maybe Mr. Foster,
President of Air Astana, just wants to test the waters and hopes that other
airline CEO’s and influential people join the discussion, raising the pressure
for Boeing – and for Airbus, which would have to react once Boeing would
announce to do something.
2. Boeing sees that the B737MAX-9 is
inferior to the A321neo and uses Mr. Foster to tell airlines around the world
not to buy anymore A321neo as a better aircraft could be “just around the
corner”.
I think it
is more likely that it it something like scenario 1. Investing billions of
dollars in such a small niche and, as Air Astana’s CEO suggested, to announce
the development now with an EIS that could not be before the middle of the next
decade (see
Scott Hamiltons comments here) just would not make sense. Sales for the
B737MAX-9 would probably suffer more than for the A321neo, as Boeing’s customer
base will be more willing to wait as the customer base of Airbus, which is
easier for Airbus to keep in their camp.
Also, as
Scott pointed out, it would be a family of aircraft, replacing the B737MAX-8,
-9 and the B757-200 (for sure not the B737MAX-7). With the 2000+ sales of the
B737MAX one can calculate that the production horizon reaches until almost 2023
now. So why prevent further sales of the B737MAX now by announcing a successor
too soon? It just won’t happen! Not now!
