A220 Deliveries in 2018

How many A220 will be delivered this year? Well, if you read the Airbus Q3 Press Release, it will be 31. The press release said it will be 18 deliveries, counted from July 1st, when Airbus took over the program. There were 13 deliveries between January and June 30th, so in total that would be 31.
But I would say this is the upper limit. It could also be "just" 30.
Looking at specific customers it is unlikely they will get another four aircraft this year besides the first one delivered. Why: let's count:
The first aircraft for Delta, MSN 50020, was the 23rd aircraft for this year. Next in line to be handed over is 55044, a A220-300 (CS300) for Swiss. This could happen as early as tomorrow.
Then 55042 for Air Baltic should be the next one, having it's first flight on October 30th. Expect delivery in 2-3 weeks. Also 55045, again for Swiss, is waiting for the first flight - that should be every day now, as it is already a week late. We should expect a handover in late November.
The second Delta aircraft, 50021, is just before the pre-delivery stage. If it moves to the flightline quickly and gets through the test and customer acceptance flights as smooth as the first one, it could be handed over to Delta in late November as well.
That would be 27 until the end of November then. Then there is also 55037 for Korean Airlines and 55046, another one for Swiss. An the third one for Delta, 50022, could m ake it to the customer this year as well. These would be 30 then. I don't think that we will see 50018, on of the two remaining CS100 (A220-100) for Swiss getting ready this year. So Tanzania could be the customer of the 31st and final aircraft this year.
Remember that Bombardier said that they would ship 40 aircraft this year... 

First A220 order

It was just hours after Airbus officially renamed the CS300 to A220-300 when the first order under Airbus control came in yesterday. Jetblue ordered 60 A220-300 and took options for another 60 (per a MoU).
Also, Jetblue converted their order for A320neo to the larger A321neo, now having 85 A321neo on order but no A320neo anymore.
The 60 firm A220-300 will be delivered by H1 2025, the options would be delivered from 2025 onwards.
by that time the oldest A320ceo in Jetblue's fleet are 25 years old - time to say goodbye maybe? But then what? Jetblue could have ordered A320neo again, of course. But what if there would be a A220--500 (formerly known as CS500) by then? Maybe we have already seen a (tentative) launch order for the A220-500...

The Bombardier-Airbus CSeries deal

I think it is not overstated when I say the last week changed the landscape of civil aircraft manufactures for years and probably decades to come.

The deal between Bombardier and Airbus that most likely from 2019 onwards lets the CSeries to be a majority owned Airbus product has the potential to influence how the product landscape will look like in 2030. And that includes the products that will be there and also that will NOT be there.

Let's image two things:

1. Airbus and Bombardier decide to do the "simple stretch" CS500, meaning no changes to the wing, the engines, the landing gear and the Max Takeoff Weight. That would be a roughly 2400nm aircraft with about the capacity of the A320(neo), but with significantly lower empty weight and thus lower trip costs for the typical ranges of up to 800nm. The (official) launch could come by early 2019, after the expected closing of the deal. EIS could then be in 2022 or 2023.
2. Airbus will adopt much of the cockpit and avionic technologies from the CSeries described here by Björn Fehrm for the A320neo (+, ++ or whatever it is called then) and also scale the wing for an A322. Development of the wing could also start in 2019 with an EIS maybe 2024, leapfrogging the potential Boeing NMA.

That would leave Boeing with a big problem: they are in the middle of defining their NMA, or "Middle of the Market" aircraft. But with these potential developments from Airbus&Bombardier Boeing's B737MAX product line just would not be competitive enough. Boeing would have to react to that and instead of launching the NMA with an earliest possible EIS of 2025 they would have to focus on a B737 replacement first

Although a A322 would not be the perfect "Middle of the Market" aircraft it could take away to many sales from the Boeing NMA to let the business case look unattractive. And the shrinking market share in the mich larger traditional narrowbody segment would drain on the cash flow.

So this past week has the chance of really becoming a defining moment...

Will the "nuclear deal" lead to higher narrowbody production rates?

Now that obviously the sanctions on Iran will be lifted in the near future after the "nuclear deal" was reached, both Airbus and Boeing will have no problem in finding buyers for their last-of-the-line A320ceo and B737NG. Airbus is overbooked anyway but could afford to allow customers who want to do so to delay deliveries and to switch to the A320neo. Boeing will find Iranian airlines willing to take B737NG's, as there are still delivery slots open in 2017 and 2018 and maybe in 2019.
The real question though is if the pressure to go to even higher rates than already announced (52 for the B737NG/MAX in 2018 and 50 for the A320ceo/neo in 2017) will now lead to quick decisions at both Airbus and Boeing.
But also Bombardier and of course Embraer could benefit from the accord: Bombardier could especially find customers for the CSeries and Embraer could sell more of their E1 line to bridge production to the E2.
Boeing also might sell some B777's to bridge their production gap between the B777-300ER/B777F and the B777-X.

New competition in Large Cabin Bizjet Segment

Yesterday Gulfstream announced their two new aircraft offerings in the Large Cabin segment, the G500 and the G600, powered with PW800 engines from P&WC. A very good summary of what these look like and what they can may be found in a long article from Aviation Week.
These aircraft borrow a lot of technology from the top-of-the-line G650(ER). In some cases, they top the G650, for example in the cockpit design.
Although Gulfstream says that these two new aircraft are additions to their product line and are not intended to replace the G450 and G550, I believe at least the days of the G450 are counted. If you read that the G500 will carry less fuel than the G450, but the G500 will fly 5000nm at M0.85, whereas the G450 flies 4220nm at M0.8. Moreover, the G500 has a cabin that is 2.5ft longer and 7 inches wider, providing a higher pressure in flight, making traveling more comfortable. Also, noise will be less, both out- and inside.
So I would not be surprised to see a run on these models comparable to the G650 when this aircraft was first announced. Production slots were sold every minute back then.
What will be the reaction from Bombardier. The G500 and G600 are clearly aiming at the Global5000 and Global 6000. We get a few hints when we search the Internet for the term "BR700NG": for example take a look here: GE is not the only one going for high tech ceramics in a business jet engine (the Passport 20 in this case). RR will also incorporate parts from this material in their BR700NG. And I am sure that

• the BR700NG will be the engine for an update of the Global 5000/6000
• that this update will be announced at the NBAA in Orlando next week

So what is Airbus vs. Boeing in the commercial aircraft arena is Bombardier vs. Gulfstream in the bizjet arena (with more than a little bit of noise from Dassault although).

Farnborough Preview

There are already some previews out there, for example from Leeham and airchive, so I won’t repeat all that is said there…but:

A330neo

Of course the BIG question is if Airbus will launch the A330neo at the show – and not, if they will launch it or not. Even if Airbus officials always state that  a final decision has not been made – that may be true from a formal perspective, but the decision has already been made by the potential customers who would otherwise turn to Boeing, at least some of them. This would not be an option for Airbus, of course.

My guess is that Airbus will at least make an “ATO launch”, but recent stories from reuters and Bloomberg suggest that Airbus is looking for last-minute commitments from the likes of AirAsia and ALC to make a launch like we have seen it from Boeing for the B777X at the Dubai Air Show last year.

Narrowbodies

Indigo will likely go ahead with an order for another 200 A320neo’s, Bloomberg reports today. This has to be seen in the context of the forthcoming IPO and a possible future shareholder stake from Qatar Airways. Indigo would then not only grow further in the indian domestic market, but also become the feeder from the whole indian subcontinent for the Qatar Airways longhaul fleet out of Doha.

Monarch reportedly switches to Boeing – a blow to Airbus of course, but this deal is probably driven by commercial terms which do not leave a big margin for both aircraft and engine manufacturers.

There could be a number of additional orders in the narrowbody market as usual, especially on the Airbus side. Boeing could announce a number of undisclosed customers for the B737MAX.

Not sure if Bombardier can announce something. Monarch adding the CSeries to the larger B737MAX (I expect only the -8 and -9 here) would make sense, but Scott Hamilton is not very optimistic on that one.

Widebodies

I refer to Leeham and airchive here…

Regionals

I expect Embraer to announce one or more orders for the E2 family, maybe a second lessor. Maybe also some E1 sales…

ATR will for sure have some sales for the ATR72-600. Bombardier always finds it hard to be able to announce during a show due to strict disclosure rules in Canada.

I do not expect anything from Mitsubishi for the MRJ…

Narrowbody engines

This is where we can expect large deals to be announced. American Airlines choosing the LEAP-1A already leaked. A logical choice as GE, CFM and GECAS have great leverage to sweeten the deal with non-neo issues.

Also we can expect that easyjet announced their choice of engines for the A320neo fleet. Any other choice than CFM would be a surprise, for the same reasons as for the AA decision. The same could be said for Lion Air, although there were rumours earlier they would opt for the PW1100G-JM. There are a number of other open A320neo decisions where the direction is not so clear (VivaAerobus, Philippine Airlines, Interjet, Transaero, China Eastern, China Southern, …)

Widebody Engines

The RR Trent1000 to be the choice for the A330neo  now seems to be a given. GE could make some deals with the GE9X of course, RR with the A350 if orders materialize for the respective aircraft. Other than that nothing to exciting here.

 

The devil is in the detail - it does not look too boring neither too exciting as yet. But there could be "unknown unknowns"...

„Premature“ engine upgrades

In the context of my last post I wondered why MTU now starts talking about an upgraded GTF to be delivered in 2019. We are one and a half years away from EIS of the PW1100G on the A320neo and the engine is  - well – not selling bad. Why announcing an upgrade now? To enhance SFC by 3% does not sound cheap - GE and RR needed two improvement packages to bring the engines for the B787 to SFC spevc level.
Furthermore MTU COO Rainer Martens told the press that these enhancements could also be implemented into the other PW1000G family members (PW1200G/PW1700G for MRJ/E175E2 and PW1500G/PW1900G for CSeries/E190E2&E195E2). So we can be sure that all aircraft OEM’s will sooner or later ask for the upgrades, just a couple of years after EIS of their respective aircraft – remember that the E175E2 should have an EIS in 2020, AFTER the PW1100G is available with the upgrade. Sounds like all the development engineers will have secure jobs at P&W, MTU, JAEC and the other PW1000G partners for the years to come. Good for them, bad for the "bean counters" in the companies and the financial breakeven of the engine programs.
For Airbus, the revelation has probably a good and a bad side. The good side is that the A320neo will enhance the competitive position against the B737MAX (and maybe later a CS500), but also the A319neo could be in a better position against the CS300. On the other side, remaining delivery positions for the A320neo in 2018 will be not that easy to fill without giving another discount for not getting the upgrade.

The B757 successor discussion

Yesterday MTU’s COO Rainer Martens revealed during the annual results presentation that there is a plan to upgrade the PW1100G engine for the A320neo with another 3% SFC jump by 2019. On a side note, as the turbo machinery of the PW1100G and the PW1400G are identical,  the MS-21 will also benefit from that as I think that P&W and their partners will not start building  two different engines.

But what does that mean in a broader context?

Firstly, we can be very sure that a similar PIP (Performance Improvement Package) will also be worked out for the LEAP-1A (and the LEAP-1C destined for the COMAC C919, as this engine has the same turbo machinery as well). Another report on a german website cites MTU’s Martens that the 3% improvement are agreed with Airbus so we expect that there is a corresponding  agreement between Airbus and CFM to lower SFC around 2019/20. As the GE9X goes into service by that time frame we can expect a lot of technology transfer from the GE9X to the LEAP-1A – and subsequently to the LEAP-1B for the B737MAX.

Secondly, this makes the business case for any A320neo and B737MAX successor harder. This is why I do not believe in a B757 successor in the time frame that was discussed by Scott Hamilton and others lately. At least not in the sense of a purpose build aircraft. Here is why:

·         The 3% lower SFC for the A321neo (and probably sooner or later also for the B737MAX-9) leads to 100+nm more range, bringing these two aircraft even closer to the capabilities of the B757 today.

·         As of today the A321ceo can do about 95% of all routes flown by the B757 today. And the A321neo can only NOT do five city pairs flown by the B757 today (I go that verbally from Airbus). 

Add the 100 extra miles coming out of the engine improvement and what is left? Maybe three routes, maybe four routes, maybe still all five. Add some improvements to the airframe and what is left then…?

I am  sure there is no business case left then for building a standalone aircraft with the capabilities of the B757. But also as part of a new family of narrowbodies, aka the A30X and the B797, there is no real need to compromise the efficiency of the whole family with a wing that is large enough to cover distances more than what the A320neo/B737MAX families will do. Otherwise Airbus and Boeing could lose market share against a Bombardier CS500 and a forthcoming Embraer small narrowbody  which are designed for ranges less than 3000nm.

But I do not see these new breeds coming a of 2025 as James N. Krebs postulated in this very interesting guest column at Leeham News. But if we see a further 3% improvement from the engines at the end of the decade, how should there be another jump of 20% in fuel burn in 2025? The technology for an aircraft with an EIS must be defined by 2018/19. With a regular tube-and-wing aircraft I cannot see a jump more than 10% from the airframe - if designed for the same range (more range: less efficiency gain for shorter routes). If we take 1% efficiency gain for every year from improved engine design (and that seems optimistic as it gets harder and harder), we get a maximum of 15% versus neo/MAX. Not taken into account that there can still be something done to the existing aircraft as well like building the fuselage from AlLi or enhancing the wing. The business case for an all new aircraft then disappears in my eyes. But I am not a bean counter…err… accountant.

Another question is if someone will do something in the sector left by the likes of the A300-600R and the B767-300(non ER): 250-300 seats, 4000nm max range. Being hinted to think about that, as can be read in the Pudget Sound article. I do not count that as a B757 successor and  I do not know if there is a business case for that but Lufthansa always cried for “people mover” like that.

Embraer bridging between E1 and E2

Much hype there was during and after the Paris Air Show last year, when Embraer launched their EJet E2 family. 365 orders, MoU and LoI from Skywest, ILFC and five unannounced customers sounded like a good start and some media was quick to compare it to the current backlog of the CSeries, which had a similar amount of orders at this time – but 5 years the “launch” LoI from Lufthansa/Swiss.

Now, a few months later, there are “just” two the two orders that were announced at PAS13: 100 aircraft for Skywest (E175E2) with 100 further options and both 25 E190E2 and E195E2 for ILFC also with an equal number of options. None of the five unannounced customers came forward since June 2013 and no other customer was added.

Last week Embraer announced their numbers for orders and deliveries in 2013. Deliveries for the EJets were exactly at plan with 88 for the year. Orders looked great with American, United, Skywest ordering large numbers of E175 and taking even more options.

But let’s have a deeper look in the orderbook: Open Orders at the beginning of the year was at 279:

    1 E170

188 E175

  73 E190

  17 E195

The E170 is obviously one delivery away from dead. It is too small for the North American regional market, where the new sweet spot if 76 seats in two classes and this is where the E175 fits in ideally. The backlog of 73 for the E190 does not look too bad at first glance, but in fact you have to subtract the 24 E190 for Jetblue as they are deferred until after 2020, when the E2 version of the E190 is available and Jetblue made it already clear that they are aiming for a switch to the E2. It could also be that they will abandon the 100 seater altogether by that time and finally cancel the order.

The 7 E190 in the orderbook from flynas (or Nasair) are also questionable, as the airlines is phasing out their EJets they already have. Another shaky part of the order book are the 24 open orders for E175 from flybe. The carrier is deep in a restructuring phase and has to become profitable soon. But let’s keep them in for that following exercise:

Without the 24 E190 for Jetblue the backlog at Jan. 1^st, 2014 was 255 aircraft. With a constant delivery rate of 88 aircraft per year the backlog will be at zero in Q4 2017 2016. But the EIS for the E190E2 is slated for the middle of 2018, the E195E2 should come in 2019 and the E175E2 finally in 2020. So Embraer has

-          to find more customers for the current EJets

or

-          to speed up the development of the E2 family

Well, in essence, they have to do both, I would say!

Embraer first announced the EJet E2 with in January 2013 when they said that they will be powered by PW1700G and PW1900G engines by P&W. These engines are essentially the engines for the Mitsubishi MRJ (PW1200G) and the Bombardier CSeries (PW1500G). These engines are already existing, tested and, in the case of the PW15000G, certificated. This is the big difference between the EJet E2 reengine program and the A320neo and B737MAX program, where the engines are the pacing item.

The EJet E2 aircraft are getting new wings, new undercarriages, a new flight deck and a full fly-by-wire system: sure, these things take their time, but Embraer took a lot of time already to decide how to react to the MRJ, CSeries and the A320neo/B737MAX. So there should have been more than just a concept at the beginning of last year and Embraer is currently testing a full fly-by-wire system with their Legacy 500 Business Jet. In fact, they “learned” so much that they switched to Moog as a supplier for the FBW system for the E2 Jets, as the Parker system contributed a lot to the delay of the Legacy 500/450 program (there could also be another reason behind that switch, as Parker is part of the “GE World” and GE lost the engine contract…).

In short, I think Embraer has to bring forward the E2 program as much as they can – otherwise they would face a production hole – but wait: there is hope: if the Mitsubishi MRJ would be delayed even further, the two big customers (Trans States and Skywest) for the MRJ would be forced to look at alternatives. The only logical aircraft that could replace the MRJ90 deliveries in the 2016/2017 time frame with the same cabin comfort would be the E175E1. This might be the reason why Skywest took options for 100 E175E1 last year when placing the order for 40 E175E1. Also United, American Airlines and Republic took further options for the E175E1. It looks like there is a considerable “hedging” against a further MRJ delay and this might help Embraer to bridge to gap between the current E1 and the forthcoming E2.

Lufthansa "launches" another aircraft

Remember? It was Lufthansa who launched the Bombardier CSeries with it's "Letter of Interest" on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show 2008. Now, just days after the CSeries conducted the first flight, it looks like Lufthansa will launch the B777-9 with it's long awaited widebody order due this week (Supervisory Board meets on Wednesday).
Lufthansa has a long history of being the launch customer for new aircraft. Most notably probably for the B737 (-100 and -300), but also for the B747-400, B747-8I, the A310, A340 and the A321.
Not all of these aircraft were (or are) as successful as the B737 and the A321, but from the sales of the current B777-300ER one can expect that the B777-9 (and -8) will eventually be best-sellers.
This week will not just be a first flight week, but also a first order week...

First Flight Days

Yesterday finally the first flight of the Bombardier CSeries CS100 happened, about nine months late. JUST nine months late, one has to say these days. Comparing to the delays of the latest aircraft from Airbus and Boeing nine months is not so bad...
Now we have to watch how quickly Bombardier can bring the following test aircraft up in the air. FTV2 should follow within a month, Bombardier previously said. If that really holds true, we might see a first delivery in 2014, otherwise I expect a slip into 2015.

Today another, considerably larger aircraft, will have it's first flight: the B787-9. Originally scheduled to enter airline service in 2010, the first delivery to Air New Zealand should now happen mid-2014. Of course, much of the delay is due to the delay of the original B787-8, but approximately another half year of delay came after the B787-8 flight test program was finished.
I expect the B787-9 to get more sales than the B787-8. And probably also the B787-10 will surpass the -8.

CSeries doing further taxi tests...

The CSeries FTV1 is just doing further taxi tests and reached 120mph during the third run of the day. Watch it live here:
http://planefinder.net/flight/BBD501

CSeries makes progress to first flight

Finally, the CSeries FTV1 just makes high speed taxi tests. For best up-to-the-minute coverage, please follow Sylvain Faust on Twitter (@sylvainfaust).
If these tests today are not showing any snags, the first flight will follow soon. Weather for Sunday is not too promising, but better for Monday, so whatch out for a first flight early next week...

Race to First Flight

In early June the aviation world still wondered which aircraft would fly first: the Bombardier CSeries CS100 or the A350-900. Then, in the week before the Paris Air Show Airbus managed to get the A350 up in the air. During the Air Show Bombardier officials still stated that the CS100 would fly until the end of June, aka in the last week of June. Then First Flight was delayed until "by the end of July", due to an upgrade of the software. The end of July came and Bombardier once again delayed the first flight, now only saying that it would happen "in the coming weeks".
During that time Low Speed Taxi tests happened and Transport Canada recently awarded the Flight Test Permit.
During the Moscow Air Show two airlines announced that they would take five CS300 each from Ilyushin Finance Lease (VIM and UTAir Ukraine).
But we are still waiting for first flight and we haven't heard of any high speed taxi test and the RTO (rejected take off). And now we hear that Boeing is not too far away from getting the B787-9 in the air. So which aircraft will be first to get the landing gear up from the ground? Once again the (virtual) race is on. Of course none of the two manufacturer will rush just to be first - safety is always first! But it's time for Bombardier to prove that the CSeries is not a paper aircraft!

The long wait...

Two days, two announcements, two delays: yesterday Bombardier told the aviation public that the CSeries will not fly in July for the first time, but in „the coming weeks“.

Today Mitsubishi Aircraft announced that the MRJ will not fly this year, but until the end of 2014  - a full one year delay (again). This is of course disappointing. According to the article Mitsubishi still has problems how to document the design and the production of the parts to be compliant with certification rules (this is my interpretation, based on what was the reason for the last delay). At least, it seems, there seems nothing wrong with the design of the aircraft itself.

The same can be said for the CSeries – hopefully! It seems that the integration of the software takes more time than planned. The question is why until now the Bombardier executives always build up pressure by announcing exactly when first flight will happen. Airbus with the A350 was smarter by only saying first flight would happen in the second half of 2013 and the surprising the aviation world by beating that target by two weeks. At least Bombardier has learned now by being vague. On the other side that does not build up confidence, especially because fixed dates were given three times before (end of 2012, end of June 2013, in July 2013). So everyone who waits for this first all-new narrowbody since the A320 first flew in 26 years ago in 1987 should hope that “in the coming weeks” does mean in the “next low single digit number of weeks”.

Paris Air Show 2013 Recap

The Paris Air Show 2013 is history – and it wrote (at least a little bit) of aviation history:

Embraer

On the opening day it was Embraer to launch it’s highly anticipated EJet E2 family. Not surprisingly, the E195-E2 will be a stretch of the current E195. Also no surprise that the E170 will not be continued and that the E190-E2 will stay where it is, sizewise. The E175-E2 will be a little bit larger in capacity, stretching it’s fuselage by 0.62m or 24.4inches. The effect is that two more seats can be fitted and in a 1-class 31” layout there are now 88 seats compared to 86 seats in the current E175. This is exactly the figure that Mitsubishi gives for the MRJ90 – any questions? With the same engine as the MRJ will get, the same cabin capacity and a new wing (even larger now than the MRJ wing) the fuel efficiency of the two aircraft should be very close to each other. The MTOW of the E175-E2 is a little bit higher (44.33 t vs. 42.8t), but the Embraer has more range, too (1920nm vs. 1780nm).

Embraer EJets G2 launch at Paris Air Show

Embraer will host a press conference regarding commercial aviation during the Paris Air Show next week on Monday (see the press release here). My strong guess is that this is where we will see the official launch of the EJet G2 Series.

And I guess Embraer will not only announce the official go-ahead but also will announce one or more first customers for the three-member strong family.

More narrowbody orders

As forecasted, we have already seen quite impressive narrowbody orders this year, although the Paris Air Show is still ahead of us.

For example, there are already orders for 461 more A320neo family aircraft – remarkably most of the for the A321neo – this year. In 2012 we saw 478 firm orders, some of which had already been announced at the Paris Air Show in 2011.

The B737MAX had it’s big year in 2012, so we cannot expect that we see more than the 949 orders from 2012 in 2013 again. So far the B737MAX got 121 orders this year.

But I expect more big orders for both narrowbodies in 2013. I already wrote about China and the needs of the airlines there, but now it becomes clearer.  According to CAPA (Centre for Aviation) , the China Times writes that chinese airlines will order about 500 narrowbodies from both Airbus and Boeing in 2013. About half of these orders would be for the neo and MAX models. This would not only be a(nother) boost for both reengining programs, it would also fill further the remaining delivery slots for the current models.

Adam Pilarski from AVITAS still thinks that we see a bubble with all these narrowbody orders. He could be right – if we would see an economic crisis hitting South East Asia and China, a lot of these orders would quickly disappear. But as long as these economies are thriving, Airbus and Boeing (and in the long run probably also Bombardier and Embraer) have nothing to fear but not being able to quickly enough deliver the ordered aircraft.

Good day for Bombardier CSeries!

It was a good day for the Bombardier CSeries yesterday (Feb. 20th).

The PW1500G, P&W’s first Geared Turbo Fan, was certified by Transport Canada. As the development of a complete new engine is always a risk, now one major risk on the whole CSeries program isn’t one anymore. It is also good news for Embraer, planning to use the same engine with slight changes to the externals  dubbed as PW1900G, for the upcoming and still-to-launch E190G2 and E195G2. Embraer can now bank on an engine that is proven in service for a few years when the G2 EJets enter service. That might have been one reason to choose the GTF over the NG34 and LEAP engines from GE and CFM.

But back to the Bombardier CSeries. The aircraft program got also a major commercial boost yesterday, when Ilyushin Finance signed a firm order for 32 CS300 plus 10 options. The original LoI called for 3 CS100 and 7 CS300 with ten options and ten purchase rights, so Ilyushin Finance upped their original commitment substantially.

Now the whole aerospace world is waiting for the first flight of the CSeries (and as well for the first flight of the A350 and London bookmakers are taking bets who is first).

Later today there will be  the conference call for results of the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended Dec. 31^st. Maybe we will hear more on the progress of the program.

Narrowbody Outlook 2013

After Boeing and Airbus unveiled their final order and delivery numbers for 2012 it is now time to turn to what is ahead. What will 2013 bring us in the narrowbody segment?

Let’s begin with deliveries – this is quite easy:

·         Airbus stabilizes their output rate at 42/month and will deliver 480-485 A320 family aircraft (ca. 11.5*42 as we have to take the summer break into account)

·         Boeing will increase the delivery rate towards  38 B737NG’s per month and therefore deliver between 450-460 narrowbodies.

·         Bombardier will deliver the first CS100 in 2014, so A & B are (probably for the last time) alone.