Airbus: GTF better than LEAP...

I obtained an interesting note from Forecast International, itself claiming to be the "Leading Provider of Aerospace, Defense, Electronics and Power Systems Intelligence. Here it is:

Ryanair and B737MAX

Not often I tend to agree with the outspoken Ryanair CEO Michael O´Leary, nicknamed by the twitter community with @MichaelOhReally. But when he recently talked about the B737 MAX, I had to agree with him. He said that he has been impressed by the fuel burn improvement the A320neo promises to deliver, but he is not impressed by the B737 MAX and said that the fuel born improvement is inferior.
Particularly he fears that the heavier CFM LEAP-1B engines and the subsequent heavier airframe will offset the better SFC, when compared to the CFM56-7B(E).
Meanwhile I had the opportunity to read the latest

Norwegian goes the American way...

That was a surprise this morning - it was long rumored that Norwegian is one of the airlines that already committed for the B737MAX (100 firm orders plus 100 purchase rights in addition to a follow-on order for 200 B737-800NG), in that case the -8 model. But that they also would order the A320neo (MoU for 100 aircraft plus 50 purchase rights) could not have been expected.
There are two possible explanations that come to my mind as reasons for that decisions to go away from a single-type fleet:

1. They went the AA way (of negotiating), meaning they negotiated with both Airbus and Boeing until they got a deal from both they could not resist to close them both.
2. Their anticipated growth is too large that one of the OEM's could deliver aircraft fast enough to satisfy that growth.

On the other hand it is a little bit discussable if a mixed fleet of B737-800NG and B737MAX-8 would be a single-fleet type anyway. The engines (CFM56-7BE and LEAP-1B) do not have anything in common and Boeing itself talks about 85% commonality between the NG and the MAX. So Norwegian would have had a two-type fleet anyway until the last -800NG would have been phased out. Now that Norwegian gets aircraft from both Airbus and Boeing the last -800NG will be phased out earlier so that the (at that scale) marginally higher costs through having a two-type fleet will be (probably) more than offset by the lower fuel costs.

The next interesting question will be the engine choice for the A320neo. Although the selection of the LEAP-1A to complement the LEAP-1B on the MAX-8 fleet would be the most logical choice, they maybe also go the AA way and buy from both engine manufacturers, like AA did it recently for their A319 (CFM56) and A321 (V2500). So the PW1100G could come into play - the factsheet that Norwegian provided with their press release shows the fan diameter of the PW1100G (81"), but that does not necessarily say anything...

The year 2012 in Aviation

The year 2011 is almost over and 2012 is ahead of us. So what did the year tell us in terms of aviation? And what does that mean for 2012? Well, here is an an excerpt of what I wrote one year ago: 
...
Maybe the first orders for the -NEO will be announced in January, as Scott Hamilton predicts.
Maybe we see some orders for the CSeries complete until the end of January, when the financial year of Bombardier ends.
If there is indeed a flush of orders for those aircraft, we should hear something out of Seattle (aka Chicago) regarding the future of the B737 soon. Southwest seems to prefer a reengining as they do not believe that Boeing will be able to pull out a successor around 2020...
...


There was certainly not a flush of orders for the CSeries - I expected some more (or at least larger - orders than what we have seen.
But the orders for the A320neo clearly made the B737MAX becoming a reality (eventually), so  Southwest gets what it wants.
In the light of the financial uncertainties surrounding the so-called Euro crisis, 2012 will be completely unpredictable in terms of new aircraft orders. But the future market is the narrowbody sector is clear: Airbus and Boeing are focusing on reengining, Embraer will follow after the B737MAX enters airline service. The only all-new aircraft of the western hemisphere will be the Bombardier CSeries and once the aircraft flies it should benefit from that fact.
The chinese C919 as well as the russian MS-21 could become good aircraft - both will have a lot of western technology built in. But if they will become true contenders is dubious. One just has to look how difficult it is for a well-known western OEM like Bombardier to break into the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
Airbus has to show a lot of progress in the A350 programme to build confidence. The last few weeks showed first fuselage sections coming together, but at this point in time the B787 was on track as well...
Boeing has to deliver  - the B787 namely. Until today they lost against every delivery target they set themselves.
Bombardier has to show the same progress as Airbus for the A350 with their CSeries - a first flight towards the end of the year would be good for them.
Embraer said they want to decide about the engine for their reengined EJets until the end of 2012 -  the race is on between a LEAP derivative, a GTF (maybe PW1524G derivative) and maybe also an offer from Rolls Royce.
Tomorrow that new year (not just in aviation) starts - have fun everyone!

Technology Credibility

During the SWA web press conference about their B737MAX order, the CFM EVP Chaker Chahrour made an interesting statement. Leeham News and Comments has the quote here: "We believe we have much more credible technology than GTF."
Well, apart from that this might have been only some PR talking, I think we should shed some light on the credibility of the quote itself.