The 130 seater market

The launch of the CSeries in July 2008 initiated many discussions about the market those two aircraft are placed: the 110-130 seater market.
Let's have a quick look in the 130 seater market,

B737RE Fan Diameter

The efficiency (SFC) of the LEAP engine for the B737RE (I call it the LEAP-2B as I think it needs a different, aka smaller core) very much depends on the fan diameter, as with a larger fan you can have a higher bypass ratio, enabling a smaller Fan Pressure Ratio (FPR), which translates in a higher propulsive efficiency.
For now there are four fan sizes in discussion, reportedly ranging from 63" to 70". The lower end represents

B737RE!

So we have another reengining programme! American Airlines just announced to purchase up to 300 B737 aircraft (as well as up to 625(!) A320neo). The more inportant detail of this message is that 100 (+60 options) of the B737NG's will be powered by the LEAP-X, unofficially launching the reengining program of the B737NG, as this needs confirmation by the Boeing board.
What does that tell us?

Boeing B737 whatever...???

I pledged to not write another part of the "...successor" story, so I named it differently. Scott Hamilton once again broke the news: Boeing is now leaning towards reengining. If that would really happen, this would be what John Leahy always expected (and so did I).
If we recap all what has been said before it becomes clear, why a reengining would be the best possible action for Boeing. Of course, a new airplane could be better by about 10% in operating costs, but at what cost and risk for Boeing? Just look at another story published yesterday by Scott Hamilton about the latest round in B787 delivery delays! It will take a few years for Boeing to get in a position where they earn some money with the B787. And with the refined A350-1000 Boeing might now feel the pressure to do something with the B777 earlier than planned before. The Y3(B777 successor) was currently planned around 2025, but with the A350-1000 arriving in 2017/2018, that could move to somewhere around 2020. That moves the Y1 (B737 successor) to the second half of the 2020's - and meanwhile, say in 2017 a reengined B737 could appear. Capital requirements for that, if true what Hamilton writes, should be in the same $1-1.5bn range as the A320neo program - probably a little less than Airbus's costs, as we can assume  that we will only see one engine on the B737RE - a LEAP-2B, how I would call it for now: with a smaller, scaled down core, a fan with the maximum possible diameter to fit under the wing without nose gear extension.
The technical risk is minimal, compared to the risk of a new airplane a la B787. Additionally, Boeing will see if the LEAP engine will work as anticipated when entering service on the A320neo.

CFM power

Scott Hamilton has a piece about how GE and CFM are able to win so many engine competitions and for that went deep into the Republic deal for 40 A319neo and 40 A320neo, to be equipped with the LEAP-1A.

After reading the story I went on and looked at a few public databases, where you can check out which airlines owns which aircraft, with which engines they are equipped and who is (eventually) the lessor of the aircraft.

I was interested in the airlines which already ordered the A320neo, but did not commit to an engine so far. Here are my findings and what they tell me:

1. GoAir: they have a firm order for 72 A320neo

Current fleet: 10 A320 powered by CFM56. They firmed up 10 options for the A320 (classic), no information which engine they choose for these, but I would guess CFM56.

GECAS leases 4 of these aircraft to GoAir.

So both CFM and GECAS have leverage for a deal to sell the LEAP-1A to GoAir. CFM could reduce spare parts pricing for the existing CFM56 and GECAS could lower lease rates.

Now GoAir is reportedly also interested in the CSeries and could announce a deal in July or August.

That gives P&W a leverage to struck a combined deal here, as the PW1524G is the sole engine for the CSeries.

Conclusion: Tie! Everything is possible!

2. Jetblue: Jetblue has a MoU for 40 A320neo

Current fleet: 118 A320 with V2500, 49 E190 with CF34-10E

GECAS leases 13 A320 as well as 35 E190 to Jetblue

At first glance, P&W should have better cards, if one just looks at the A320 engines, but GECAS tries to get a hold here with more leases.

MTU does the MRO for the engines on a power-by-the-hour basis, so they could be involved in a deal for placing the PW1133G on the A320neo's for Jetblue.

Conclusion: It's P&W's to loose - and that's the chance of CFM!

3. Avianca TACA: they have a MoU for 33 A320neo

Current fleet: 42 A320 powered by CFM (mostly Avianca), 30 A320 powered by V2500 (+20 on order)

GECAS leases 14 aircraft to Avianca TACA.

GE has a dedicated MRO shop for the CFM56-5 in Brasil.

Conclusion: CFM's to loose. They have clearly more to throw into that deal.

4. LAN/TAM: 20 firm oders (LAN) + MoU for 22 (TAM)

The airlines are in a merger process.

Current fleet: Large A320 family fleet, powered both by the V2500 and the CFM56 - LAN selected the CFM56 last year for a further 50 A320.

GECAS leases 23 aircraft, mostly to TAM.

MTU is providing MRO for the V2500 at TAM.

Conclusion: Close call! CFM and GECAS have slightly more leverage...

5. Garuda Indonesia/Citilink: MoU for 10 A320neo + 25 Options

Current fleet: 78 B737 (Classics and NG) with CFM56

GECAS leases 40 B737 to Garuda.

Conclusion: CFM can hardly loose this one!

6. Transasia: 6 A321neo on firm order

Current fleet: 2 A320 and 5 A321 powered by V2500, 7 ATR powered by PW127

Conclusion: P&W can hardly loose here!

And now look at some prospective customers:

1. Delta Air Lines

Current fleet:

• GE engines are on 105 aircraft
• CFM engines are on 209 aircraft
• GECAS leases14 aircraft to Delta
• PW engines are on 355 aircraft
• IAE engines are on 27 aircraft with 13 more to come (MD-90)

Most PW engines will go away with the replacement (the last DC-9's and the MD-80's), so the P&W leverage is not that big as it looks.

Conclusion: a deciding factor could be the engine commonality with a possible CSeries order!

2. American Airlines

Current fleet:

• GE engines are on 73 aircraft and will be on the 6 ordered B777-300ER
• CFM engines are on 154 aircraft and 54 more ordered B737-800
• GECAS leases 61 aircraft to AA
• PW engines are on the 229 MD-80's, which will then disappear

Conclusion: never heard so far that AA is interested in the CSeries, so this is CFM's to loose.

3. Air France/KLM

Current fleet:

• GE engines are on 146 aircraft
• CFM engine are on 210 aircraft
• GECAS leases just one aircraft to AF/KLM (is that right?)

Conclusion: hopeless for P&W, M. Sarkozy will never let AirFrance order an engine without french content if there is one available.