Farnborough Preview

We are only days away from this years largest air show. There are quite a few previews out there, the most extensive I read comes from Scott Hamilton.
First at all - for me the SST mentioned in Scott's post is nothing more than a marketimg gag - at least for the flying public. The program could serve Boeing as a technology platform for military vehicles in the future, but I doubt that we will ever see a thing like that one shown in the post flying (in full scale at least).
But what about the rest?
I think we will see one or two "surprise" orders for the A320neo. They might not be that big of a surprise anymore (why on earth is Allegiant looking for an Airbus Fleet Manager???), but one or two years back it would have been a "sensation".
No question though that Farnborough will be the MAX show. Just how many orders Boeing can gain from how many customers is the question. But long-term this is not really important as Boeing just has to build confidence in the market about the solidity of the MAX design.
There will be no launch of the B777-X or the B787-10. Not a A330neo. But maybe Airbus will announce the 240t version of the A330, maybe with sharklets. If so, they will likely announce a launch customer also.
Airbus might announce orders for the A350, most probably for the -1000, they are very much needed.
If Turkish Airlines decides in time to announce an order for either the A380 or the B747-8I remains to be seen...
Other programs like the B787 might see some orders as well of course.

If Bombardier can announce more orders for the CSeries before first flight is questionable. As Scott Hamilton pointed out Bombardier cannot "hide" an order until an airshow comes up, so they have to close negotiations right at the air show to announce it there.

Embraer will not have anything really new to say about the EJet G2 family (G2 being the designation for the reengined version of the EJets). They might announce some orders though.

ATR will annouce some orders (Aer Arran being the most probable one). Nothing new anout the 90 seater though. ATR can potentially wait on others, as their backlog is full, that being not the case at Bombardier despite recent sales for the Q400. But as Bombardier is (financially and workload) overloaded with the CSeries, the Global 7000/8000 and the Learjets in development we can't expect something like a Q400X in the foreseeable future, so ATR is in a very comfortable position.

That's it - more or less. The engine makers will make some announcements as well of course and there will be a lot of bean counting who is leading the neo race for example. But the race will take years if not a decade (or two?) until we could see a real winner.

No comments:

Post a Comment