Remember? It was Lufthansa who launched the Bombardier CSeries with it's "Letter of Interest" on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show 2008. Now, just days after the CSeries conducted the first flight, it looks like Lufthansa will launch the B777-9 with it's long awaited widebody order due this week (Supervisory Board meets on Wednesday).
Lufthansa has a long history of being the launch customer for new aircraft. Most notably probably for the B737 (-100 and -300), but also for the B747-400, B747-8I, the A310, A340 and the A321.
Not all of these aircraft were (or are) as successful as the B737 and the A321, but from the sales of the current B777-300ER one can expect that the B777-9 (and -8) will eventually be best-sellers.
This week will not just be a first flight week, but also a first order week...
9/17/2013
First Flight Days
Yesterday finally the first flight of the Bombardier CSeries CS100 happened, about nine months late. JUST nine months late, one has to say these days. Comparing to the delays of the latest aircraft from Airbus and Boeing nine months is not so bad...
Now we have to watch how quickly Bombardier can bring the following test aircraft up in the air. FTV2 should follow within a month, Bombardier previously said. If that really holds true, we might see a first delivery in 2014, otherwise I expect a slip into 2015.
Today another, considerably larger aircraft, will have it's first flight: the B787-9. Originally scheduled to enter airline service in 2010, the first delivery to Air New Zealand should now happen mid-2014. Of course, much of the delay is due to the delay of the original B787-8, but approximately another half year of delay came after the B787-8 flight test program was finished.
I expect the B787-9 to get more sales than the B787-8. And probably also the B787-10 will surpass the -8.
Now we have to watch how quickly Bombardier can bring the following test aircraft up in the air. FTV2 should follow within a month, Bombardier previously said. If that really holds true, we might see a first delivery in 2014, otherwise I expect a slip into 2015.
Today another, considerably larger aircraft, will have it's first flight: the B787-9. Originally scheduled to enter airline service in 2010, the first delivery to Air New Zealand should now happen mid-2014. Of course, much of the delay is due to the delay of the original B787-8, but approximately another half year of delay came after the B787-8 flight test program was finished.
I expect the B787-9 to get more sales than the B787-8. And probably also the B787-10 will surpass the -8.
9/09/2013
CSeries doing further taxi tests...
The CSeries FTV1 is just doing further taxi tests and reached 120mph during the third run of the day. Watch it live here:
http://planefinder.net/flight/BBD501
http://planefinder.net/flight/BBD501
9/06/2013
CSeries makes progress to first flight
Finally, the CSeries FTV1 just makes high speed taxi tests. For best up-to-the-minute coverage, please follow Sylvain Faust on Twitter (@sylvainfaust).
If these tests today are not showing any snags, the first flight will follow soon. Weather for Sunday is not too promising, but better for Monday, so whatch out for a first flight early next week...
If these tests today are not showing any snags, the first flight will follow soon. Weather for Sunday is not too promising, but better for Monday, so whatch out for a first flight early next week...
9/04/2013
Airbus overbooking A320ceo slots
With Delta Air Lines today announcing the plan to purchase 30 A321ceo (along with 10 A330-300) it becomes clear that all the remaining A320ceo slots are booked now and that it is very likely that Airbus overbooks the slots.
As of July31 there were 1.787 open orders for the A320ceo family in the orderbook. Now let us consider the following orders to get cancelled:
With a production rate of 42 and 11.5 months of production per year another 1092 aircraft will have been delivered until the end of October, when the A320neo will enter airline service, leaving .
A320ceo production will ramp down from that point in time. Assume Airbus can hold the rate of 42 aircraft per month steady.
I read somewhere that 12 A320neo should leave the factories in 2015 and 100 in 2016. So from the 564 aircraft produced from November 2015 until December 2016 464 will be ceo's, leaving the ceo backlog at 374. For 2017 I guess that around 60% of all produced A320 will be neo's (289 from 483), so the ceo number delivered in 2017 would be 194 and the remaining backlog at the beginning of 2018 would be 180. Airbus said before that the A320neo should reach 100% share in early 2018, so it is clear that the A320ceo are overbooked at the moment. Maybe this is not unwise as one of the two neo engine suppliers could be late - who knows...
UPDATE: I forgot to mention the American Airlines order: the order for a combined 130 A319ceo and A321ceo is not part of the orderbook. The first two aircraft were delivered in July, then three in August and another one in early September. Airbus leases these aircraft directly to American and then sells them with the lease attached. Not all deliveries will follow that procedure: ILFC ordered 15 A321 recently to lease to AA, so these 15 A321 are part of the orderbook and we do not know how many aircraft from the recent order for 3 A319 and 5 A321 from CIT are destined for AA and how many aircraft will come from other already existing orders fom leasing companies. But Airbus already said that around 30 aircraft will follow the procedure of the first four A319, which were sold to Avolon. So we have another expansion of the orderbook and further overbooking of the A320ceo slots.
As of July31 there were 1.787 open orders for the A320ceo family in the orderbook. Now let us consider the following orders to get cancelled:
- Kinfisher/Kingfisher Red 67 aircraft
- United Airlines 30 aircraft
- Alphastream 15 aircraft
- Northwest Airlines 7 aircraft
- Croatia 4 aircraft
- Hamburg International 2 aircraft
- Delta Airlines 30 aircraft
- Vueling 30 aircraft
- CASC 42 aircraft
- Air China / Shenzen 40 aircraft
With a production rate of 42 and 11.5 months of production per year another 1092 aircraft will have been delivered until the end of October, when the A320neo will enter airline service, leaving .
A320ceo production will ramp down from that point in time. Assume Airbus can hold the rate of 42 aircraft per month steady.
I read somewhere that 12 A320neo should leave the factories in 2015 and 100 in 2016. So from the 564 aircraft produced from November 2015 until December 2016 464 will be ceo's, leaving the ceo backlog at 374. For 2017 I guess that around 60% of all produced A320 will be neo's (289 from 483), so the ceo number delivered in 2017 would be 194 and the remaining backlog at the beginning of 2018 would be 180. Airbus said before that the A320neo should reach 100% share in early 2018, so it is clear that the A320ceo are overbooked at the moment. Maybe this is not unwise as one of the two neo engine suppliers could be late - who knows...
UPDATE: I forgot to mention the American Airlines order: the order for a combined 130 A319ceo and A321ceo is not part of the orderbook. The first two aircraft were delivered in July, then three in August and another one in early September. Airbus leases these aircraft directly to American and then sells them with the lease attached. Not all deliveries will follow that procedure: ILFC ordered 15 A321 recently to lease to AA, so these 15 A321 are part of the orderbook and we do not know how many aircraft from the recent order for 3 A319 and 5 A321 from CIT are destined for AA and how many aircraft will come from other already existing orders fom leasing companies. But Airbus already said that around 30 aircraft will follow the procedure of the first four A319, which were sold to Avolon. So we have another expansion of the orderbook and further overbooking of the A320ceo slots.
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