A350-1000 with more range - Update II

I made a quick assessment how the new -1000/-1100 family could look like:

	A350-1000	A350-1100	A350-1100ER
Pax	350	380	380
Range	8500 nm	8000 nm	8500nm
MTOW	314 t	318 t	331 t
OEW	152 t	157 t	159 t
SLS TO Thrust	98klbf	100klbf	104klbf

I enlarged the wing, so that the A350-1000 keeps the same wing loading.
I have to admit that this is a very rough assessment as I have not looked into things like climb times, takeoff performance and so on...

A350-1000 with more range - Update

Flightglobal has a new take on what is going on with the A350-1000. Contrary to Scott Hamilton, Max Kingsley-Jones thinks that the wing would be part of the design change, thus getting larger. This could indicate two things:
1. The Thrust/Weight-Ratio could get down without sacrificing runway performance as the larger wing would provide more lift. In other words, the MTOW could be lifted more than the ~5% gain in takeoff thrust, enabling the aircraft to carry more payload (especially cargo) over the reportedly new design range of 8500nm.
2. The investment for a larger wing and a "new" engine would make more sense, if another type would be added to the A350 family - call it the A350-1100 for now. With a further stretch of 4m it would have a fuselage length of roughly 80m, representing the ultimate stretch and would be a real B777-300ER competitor in terms of passenger capacity. The question then only is, if the range of the -1100 would be limited to 8000nm, comparable to the B777-300ER range, or if the -1100 would also get a range suitable for LAX-DXB (I now think that the 8500nm should work in >90% of the time for that route). If so, the "new" engine should really be a "new" engine - not just with an enlarged core, but also with a larger fan, as the thrust requirement would be more in the range of 105klbf. That would have implications to the basic design of the aircraft, especially the length of the undercarriage.

So Airbus could end up with the sub-families fo the A350 - the -900 and the -800 on the lower end and the -1000 and the -1100 on the upper end, very much comparable with the A340.

But again - until June 18 all is about speculation! But that's the fun with it...

A350-1000 with more range - implications for B737 successor?

Scott Hamilton just came out with this story: the A350-1000 will get more range (500nm) and a more powerful Trent XWB engine (+5000lbf).
A quick calculation revealed that 500nm more range need about 12.3t more MTOW. About 10 tonnes are for the extra fuel burned to cover the extra 500nm, about 2 tonnes needs the structure to carry the heavier aircraft, the balance goes for fuel reserves, as these are calculated in dependence of the actual flown range.
Thrust-to-weight ratio thus will be largely unchanged, runway performance probably a little bit worse, if the wing is unchanged. Compared to the B777-300ER, the wing is not heavily loaded, so I do not believe Airbus will enlarge the wing.
Scott writes that even the 8500nm will not meet Emirates desire of being able to fly Dubai - Los Angeles nonstop. The great circle distance for DXB-LAX is about 7250nm, so there is a 17% range margin. But is this enough to counter strong headwinds. A quick calculation shows that 17% of Ma0.85 (cruising speed of the A350) are equal to about 83nm/hr, meaning that if the average headwind on the route is higher than 83 knots, a technical stop would be necessary. I do not the average wind speed on the route over the north pole, but I could imagine that average wind speeds of 83knots and more ar possible.
The calculation also confirms that Emirates second desire - to add more pax - cannot be part of the change in the A350-1000 specification. So I wonder what is the rationality behind these changes? The 777-300ER has slightly less than the 8000nm of the "old" -1000 configuration, the 500 extra miles is good for a couple of extra city pairs, but does that justify the pain? The pain is probably bigger for RR than for Airbus, as these 5000lbf more of thrust will very likely mean that the whole core has to be changed, which means a lot of investment.
The main reason for that change might be to prevent Boeing from concentrating on the B737 successor. Airbus might hope that Boeing now feels more pressure on the B777-300ER and to concentrate R&D resources here and "only" to re-engine to B737 as Airbus always predicted.
And Airbus is apparently not alone: the recent Bernstein Research Note also suggests that Boeing should re-engine. Richard Aboulafia, VP of Teal Group, also thinks that a B737RE is the best answer to the A32XNEO, as one can reread in the AirInsight Paris Airshow Discussion transcript.
I guess we can expect the official Airbus announcement on Saturday, June 18th at the press briefing.
One is for sure - this years Paris Air Show is getting more and more interesting.

CSeries order from Sweden

On June 1st Bombardier announced a new order for the CSeries. Five CS100 and five CS300 will be operated by Malmö Aviation, a small but highly regarded airline. The airline was rated "best national  airline" in Sweden for several times. The roots go back to 1981. In 1998 Malmö Aviation was bought by the norwegian Braathens family and cooperated with Braathens Sverige. Braathens was bought by S.A.S. in 2002 and named S.A.S. Norge, but Malmö Aviation was dissociated before and remained under control of the Braathens family.
This order alone is not significant. But I am pretty sure that we will  see some more orders - likely at the Paris Ais Show, maybe later in the year.

LEAP-X wins first customers

Just a quick note as I am just coming back from a small vacation and saw the news that LEAP-X reportedly got their first two customers - ILFC for the remaining 40 of their 100 A320NEO order and Virgin America for 30 A320neo. The latter is no real surprise, as it was CFM to loose as the incumbent here. Lessors tend to split their A320 orders anyway, so one could anticipate that, too.
The next very-likely-LEAP-X-powered-A320neo-order should be from AirAsia. As Tony Fernandes wants to convert some of the "Classic"-orders and the current Air Asia order is CFM56-powered, a deal including a conversion of orders is only thinkable with CFM.
Still open are TAM with their MoU for 22 A320neo.
During the Paris Air Show we will probably see orders from Republic and Qatar for the A320neo. I would expect Qatar to choose the GTF, as they are also likely to order the CSeries, which is exclusively powered by the GTF. Republic as one of the existing CSeries customers is also a good candidate for the GTF on the A320neo.