A350 overweight?

Airbus quietly unveiled new payload-range data for the three A350 models on it's website.
The A350-900 now seats 315 (was 314), but flies 350nm less: 7,750nm.
The A350-800 now seats 276 (was 270), but flies 250nm less: 8,250nm
The A350-1000 now seats 369 (was 350), but flies 400nm less: 8,000nm

As this comes about 5 months after first flight I guess it has something to do with the initial performance of the aircraft. What it is exactly we cannot know. It could be:

• higher than anticipated SFC of the Trent XWB engines
• higher aircraft weight which now became clear cannot be brought down
• aerodynamic inefficiencies

What strikes my eyes that the one more passenger in the A350-900 (for whom we suggest a generous extra weight of 300lbs including seat etc.) costs more range than the six passengers more in the -800. And the 19 extra passengers cost only 50nm more than the one passenger in the -900. Although the -1000 is structural different than the -800 and the -900 and the engines are different too, this is not really conclusive.

I guess we can expect some argueing duels between John Leahy and Randy Tinseth over these new numbers in Dubai next week. Randy will not miss out to bash the A350 for ranges that are (nominally) again not meeting Emirates range expectations (DXB-LAX) whereas "his" B777-9 will do so (although I would expect Emirates to fly these long routes with a 3 class layout with less than 350 passengers in a A350-1000). And John Leahy will try and find a way to spin something positive around these numbers...

UPDATE: in fact these numbrs are NOT NEW and where already shown in 2011, long before the first flight and probably also the SFC of the certificated Trent XWB became clear.

Leahys latest order goal...

Today John Leahy said that Airbus now eyes 1,200 orders for this year. Until the end of September Airbus racked up orders for 1,112 aircraft. Taking into account 50 cancellations net orders stood at 1,062. Then today we learned about the JAL order for 31 A350, so we are at 1,093 net. Adding the latest announced orders for the A320 family (62 for Vietjet, 23 for Qingdao, 20 for Zhejiang and another 100 for Air Chian and Shenzen), Airbus would be well over 1,200. And then there is the Dubai Air Show where I would expect that Airbus will try to counter the expected order bonanza for the B777X with some announcements (there are rumours that flydubai could switch to Airbus...).
So an ambitious goal would be - say - 1,500 net orders. But maybe Leahy wants to have more time to go fishing rather than selling more aircraft...

Why is Leahy so pessimistic?

Airbus Salesman John Leahy seems not to be too optimistic about selling a lot of aircraft at this year's Paris Air Show. He still expects to sell around 750 aircraft this year. At the end of March there were sold 431 aircraft according to the published Excel Sheet on their website. Additionally, we know that Lufthansa will buy another 100 A320 and 2 A380, Turkish will buy 83 A320 and Mandala 18 A320 through Tiger Airways exercising options (although Mandala will probably then cancel their old order for 25 A320's).
Before cancellations this would be then 633 orders. Knowing that there are a lot of decisions still looming this year and that not only the Paris Air Show but also the Dubai Air Show is coming, I would be surprised if the orderbook for 2013 would only see 750 orders. But maybe Leahy was talking about net orders and he already knows that Kingfisher will cancel all their outstanding orders this year. Also, there are outstanding orders for United and Northwest (now Delta of course) for A320's and I do not expect them to be filled. Mexicana is now defunct and their 4 open orders will sooner or later also disappear.

Orders, orders, orders...

Starting early last week we see another MoU firmed up (MEA, Avolon), a new MoU (Hawaiian) or even a completely new order (Citilink) for the A320neo. An exception was last Friday, when Airbus and Singapore announced the order for 5 more A380 and 20 more A350-900.
I am now sure that John Leahy will tell the audience on Thursday that he now has (more than) 2000 orders and commitments for the A320neo. Maybe even 2000 or more firm orders.
Today's order came from BOC Aviation for 25 A320neo as well as 25 A320ceo, further filling the remaining delivery positions for the "ceo".
I wonder who is featured in Leahy's 5th season show tomorrow. And who is going to be the rabbit jumping out of Leahy's hat on Thursday.
That leads me to...Lion! They reportedly will order or have ordered more than 200 A320's. I believe it when I see it...Scott Hamilton reports also that they selected the GTF for this order - if this is all true, it would be a huge blow for both Boeing and CFM.
The firmation of the AA order is subject to cout approval now (as is the MAX and B787 order).

AirAsia eyes A320NEO

News broke yesterday that AirAsia's CEO Tony Fernandes held talks with Airbus COO John Leahy and CEO Tom Enders about a mass purchase of the A320NEO. According to Fernandes the order would be similar in size to the existing order for 175 A320, so expect something like a firm order for 100 and a further 50 options or so to be announced soon. Maybe together with the also "pre-announced" order for more A330's, maybe firmed during the Paris Air Show in June.
If you look at AirAsia and the other two carriers which came forward to order or to sign an LoI for the NEO, it becomes clear who are the prime targets for Airbus when the A320NEO was launched: the fast-growing LCC's in Asia (IndiGo, AirAsia, Tiger) and elsewhere (Virgin America in this case). A few years back the prime targets would have been on different continents - this is a clear sign of how the world has changed in the last decade.
Why are these large LCC's attractive (potential) customers)? They already have (or will have in 2016) large fleets - adding another subtype (in case of the NEO it's "just" another engine) in an equal large scale does not produce a lot of headaches. And by being one of the launch customers for one of the NEO engines, they can bet on getting good deals not only regarding the purchase price of the engines but also for aftermarket packages. Remember IndiGo was the launch customer for the V2500Select.
Even Ryanair, at least in public, talks about adding another type to their B737-800 fleet, altough that might be just chatter get better pricing from Boeing. Southwest though, already having different types of the B737 in their fleet and adding the B717 with the purchase (merger) of airtran can be expected to have a closer look to diversifying the fleet more, but this would, if at all, point more in the direction of the CS300 (or a CS500) to replace the B737-300 and later -700.
So expect to see more big orders for the A320NEO from LCC's - but not only from LCC's...