There are already some previews out there, for example from Leeham
and airchive,
so I won’t repeat all that is said there…but:
A330neo
Of course
the BIG question is if Airbus will launch the A330neo at the show – and not, if
they will launch it or not. Even if Airbus officials always state that a final decision has not been made – that may
be true from a formal perspective, but the decision has already been made by
the potential customers who would otherwise turn to Boeing, at least some of
them. This would not be an option for Airbus, of course.
My guess is
that Airbus will at least make an “ATO launch”, but recent stories from reuters
and Bloomberg
suggest that Airbus is looking for last-minute commitments from the likes of
AirAsia and ALC to make a launch like we have seen it from Boeing for the B777X
at the Dubai Air Show last year.
Narrowbodies
Indigo will
likely go ahead with an order
for another 200 A320neo’s, Bloomberg reports today. This has to be seen in the
context of the forthcoming IPO and a possible future shareholder stake from Qatar
Airways. Indigo would then not only grow further in the indian domestic market,
but also become the feeder from the whole indian subcontinent for the Qatar Airways
longhaul fleet out of Doha.
Monarch
reportedly switches to Boeing – a blow to Airbus of course, but this deal is probably
driven by commercial terms which do not leave a big margin for both aircraft
and engine manufacturers.
There could
be a number of additional orders in the narrowbody market as usual, especially
on the Airbus side. Boeing could announce a number of undisclosed customers for
the B737MAX.
Not sure if
Bombardier can announce something. Monarch adding the CSeries to the larger
B737MAX (I expect only the -8 and -9 here) would make sense, but Scott
Hamilton is not very optimistic on that one.
Widebodies
I refer to Leeham
and airchive
here…
Regionals
I expect
Embraer to announce one or more orders for the E2 family, maybe a second lessor.
Maybe also some E1 sales…
ATR will
for sure have some sales for the ATR72-600. Bombardier always finds it hard to
be able to announce during a show due to strict disclosure rules in Canada.
I do not
expect anything from Mitsubishi for the MRJ…
Narrowbody
engines
This is
where we can expect large deals to be announced. American
Airlines choosing the LEAP-1A already leaked. A logical choice as GE, CFM
and GECAS have great leverage to sweeten the deal with non-neo issues.
Also we can
expect that easyjet announced their choice of engines for the A320neo fleet.
Any other choice than CFM would be a surprise, for the same reasons as for the
AA decision. The same could be said for Lion Air, although there were rumours
earlier they would opt for the PW1100G-JM. There are a number of other open
A320neo decisions where the direction is not so clear (VivaAerobus, Philippine
Airlines, Interjet, Transaero, China Eastern, China Southern, …)
Widebody
Engines
The RR
Trent1000 to be the choice for the A330neo
now seems to be a given. GE could make some deals with the GE9X of
course, RR with the A350 if orders materialize for the respective aircraft. Other than that nothing to exciting here.
The devil is in the detail - it does not look too boring neither too exciting as yet. But there could be "unknown unknowns"...
