Who needs Qantas?

Sorry for this rhethorical question!  And of course it would be bad if another iconic name in aviation history would disappear. But reading the news from "down under" today, I am coming to the conclusion that the best solution would be to drop the Qantas brand altogether and just to continue with Jetstar. To "save" the Qantas brand name Jetstar could then be renamed Qantas and join oneworld (again).
At least with the alliance with Emirates the international operations of Qantas itself became irrelevant. It looks more like a feeder for Emirates. And now that Emirates will start codesharing with the Qantas LCC offshoot Jetstar, there is no real need for a domestic Qantas. Concentrate all domestic efforts on Jetstar and act as a feeder for Emirates in markets like Singapore, Ho Chi Minh and elsewhere in south east and north asia.

Lufthansa in "panic mode"?

Today there is news (only in German as of now) that Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines are "downgrading" miles flown with Turkish Airlines in their frequent flyer program "Miles & More". Customers who fly with Turkish Airlines on will only get a quarter of the flown miles as status miles. Austrian has canceled the code sharing with THY altogether effective summer 2014. Also Lufthansa is thinking about reducing their code sharing with THY.
This looks a little bit like Lufthansa being in panic mode. In the last two years, there have been multiple opportunities for Lufthansa to set up a wide ranging partnership with THY to fend off the three large gulf carriers. But the Lufthansa management seemed to be confident to go their way without it. Now that Turkish Airlines expanded in Germany big way, flying to 14 destinations today and just announced another one (Kassel-Calden) and many customers including business class customers flying to the Far East prefer THY due to prices and service, Lufthansa reacts.
The only way this move makes sense is that LH has another big plan on the table. Last week there I saw there were news that Lufthansa and Emirates are talking to each other ... could there be another alliance a la Emirates/Qantas in the making?

Dubai Air Show

The Dubai Air Show is approaching and according to the press conference schedule it will start with a busy Sunday. Boeing has occasionally blocked two conference rooms at once, so we can conclude that they expect to have some announcements. But many deals are made perfect in the last minute, so many the bookings could be tentative. Just think of how the story between Qatar and Airbus went two years ago when U-Turn Al accused Airbus of not knowing how to build airplanes just to order some dozens an hour later...

I think it is out of question that the B777X - or the B777-8/-9 how we can call it now - will be the big star of the show. I don't think that the negative vote of the IAM regarding the contract offer from Boeing will have any impact on the orders from Emirates, Etihad, Cathay, Qatar(???) and who else looks for this aircraft. And although there seems to be some discussions about the engine thrust needed (A350-1000 anyone?) I don't think that bothers these airlines to order now. But it could lead to some new discussions between Boeing and Lufthansa (and GE probably) as I guess Lufthansa can very well sort out what impact on seat costs for their typical routes a more powerful (and therefore heavier and thirstier) engine and a heavier aircraft has. It is fair to believe Lufthansa was already offered a very good price, being the first airline to officially order the aircraft. But a further price reduction, based on the cost impact the more powerful engine for, say, 12 years is in the cards.

That will not undermine the business case for the new B777 family, of course. In fact, I wonder if we will see the B777-8/-9 to sell even faster than the B787? With the expected block buster orders from the Gulf carriers to begin with that could very well be...

What else can we expect?

Some orders for the A320neo and the A350 for Etihad maybe. Spicejet is rumored to lean towards the A320neo. Jet Airways is also in the running for the next round of narrowbodies and according to rumors have already ordered the B737MAX as an unidentified customer but wants the A320neo for JetKonnect. flydubai also could order narrowbodies as well as Air Arabia. Monarch Airlines said some weeks ago they are close to make an order, but that does not have to be in sync with the Dubai Air Show.

We could also see some engine decisions regarding the A320neo. There are a few large orders pending. The decisions from American Airlines will probably take a while as they have come out of bankruptcy and to sort out the merger with US Airways first. But there is Lion Air (174 A/C), easyjet (100 A/C), the second batch of Lufthansa (70 A/C), the second 50 A/C from Norwegian, Turkish Airlines (57 A/C) and many others...

There are probably also some engine orders open for the B787 that could be announced.

With the expected orders for the new B777 this Air Show will probably set a new record for orders in terms of value!

A350 overweight?

Airbus quietly unveiled new payload-range data for the three A350 models on it's website.
The A350-900 now seats 315 (was 314), but flies 350nm less: 7,750nm.
The A350-800 now seats 276 (was 270), but flies 250nm less: 8,250nm
The A350-1000 now seats 369 (was 350), but flies 400nm less: 8,000nm

As this comes about 5 months after first flight I guess it has something to do with the initial performance of the aircraft. What it is exactly we cannot know. It could be:

• higher than anticipated SFC of the Trent XWB engines
• higher aircraft weight which now became clear cannot be brought down
• aerodynamic inefficiencies

What strikes my eyes that the one more passenger in the A350-900 (for whom we suggest a generous extra weight of 300lbs including seat etc.) costs more range than the six passengers more in the -800. And the 19 extra passengers cost only 50nm more than the one passenger in the -900. Although the -1000 is structural different than the -800 and the -900 and the engines are different too, this is not really conclusive.

I guess we can expect some argueing duels between John Leahy and Randy Tinseth over these new numbers in Dubai next week. Randy will not miss out to bash the A350 for ranges that are (nominally) again not meeting Emirates range expectations (DXB-LAX) whereas "his" B777-9 will do so (although I would expect Emirates to fly these long routes with a 3 class layout with less than 350 passengers in a A350-1000). And John Leahy will try and find a way to spin something positive around these numbers...

UPDATE: in fact these numbrs are NOT NEW and where already shown in 2011, long before the first flight and probably also the SFC of the certificated Trent XWB became clear.

Emirates asking for A380 engine enhancements

Emirates obviously wants some enhancements for their A380 engines - at least for the aircraft that should one day replace the first ninety. The last of these aircraft will be delivered in 2017 and by that time Airbus will have delivered around 240 A380 if all production slots are filled until that time. Well, obviously some of the ordered aircraft will be either delivered later as their deliveries are deferred (like for Virgin Atlantic) of won't be delivered at all (read: Kingfisher and probably Hong Kong Airlines as well as Air Austral).
Two engine manufactures share the A380 market: Rolls Royce and the Engine Alliance (50:50 JV between GE and P&W). Let's say both have around 50% of the market (actually, thanks to the large Emirates orderbook EA has a slight lead), then both manufacturers will have delivered 480 engines plus spares.
Now Emirates asks for a "propulsion technology crossover into the A380, in terms of what they’re doing on the 777X, the A320neo and the 737MAX”, says Emirates president Clark and claims that one of the EA partners will produce "wonders in propulsion technology" by 2020, when the A380 still should have GP7200 engines (and the Trent 900 of course as well). So he asks what the plans from GE and P&W are to improve propulsion efficiency of the GP7200.
my first question would be who of the two EA partners will produce these "wonders"?

• Does he refer to the GE9X? He should have a good knowledge about what GE is planning for this engine, although some questions arose around his comment that the engine would need water injection to be able to lift the B777X from Dubai year-round: read the first reaction from GE here, another one here. Clearly, the GE9X will be the state-of-the-art engine in it's class, encompassing the Trent XWB-97, as overall pressure ratio and bypass ratio will be higher and the use of CMC should save some cooling air, further elevating the core efficiency compared to the latest Trent engine.
• Or does he refer to the Geared Turbo Fan from P&W. From all what we know this engine defines the segment of the regional and  narrowbody engines for the years to come (closely followed by the LEAP engine family, of course).

Nevertheless which engine concept Clark has in mind, I wonder if the two partners in the EA are ready for a big improvement programme for the GP7200. Small improvements have already been made: today's GP7200 are better by 2% than original spec values. To improve the engine by any big (SFC percentage) number should be at least very costly, if not impossible without a change in architecture. But with only about 500 engines of the GP7200 sold by then there would be no hope for the engine program to ever produce a profit. So EA (as well as RR) will do whatever they can to avoid another large development investment in the engine. RR could on the other hand also offer a downrated Trent XWB, although this engine might be too heavy for the wing as it is today.
Last week , there was speculation in a german newspaper about what might be the A380 going forward plan from Airbus. Günter Butschek, Airbus COO speculated about "modifications" for the aircraft, Heinrich Großbongardt, a german aviation consultant, speculated about an A380neo. I guess in Hartford, Cincinnati and Derby this was not a fun-to-read...

Paris Air Show 2013 - The Widebody Show

After the 2011 edition of the Paris Air Show was dominated by the A320neo, this year seems to be the show of the Widebodies. The usual suspects as Emirates and Qatar will surely play a major role here, as we can read here (as for Qatar) and here (as for Emirates). Although the B777X is not mentioned in the first article we can be sure that Qatar will also be one of the first customers for the then largest twin. Probably not only the B777X will get it's first orders but also the B787-10 will see a formal launch with a first wave of orders. Airbus, of course, will try not to stand by and have it's own order book filled, mainly that of the A350.
The future of the A380 could play a role in conjunction with the launch of the B777X as the seat costs of the double decker will come under pressure once the B777-9 will enter service. So we might hear what Airbus has on it's plate for 2020 and beyond, as also Ben Sandilands suggests - although he thinks that might need a little bit more time.

Dubai Air Show

If an article published by Reuters is correct, we will see a major order for more B777-300ER's from Emirates at the Dubai Air Show, which opens on Sunday. Rumors are, that Emirates will order another 30-50 of the long-range twin. They still have 41 B777-300ER on order. At the recent order pace that would be good for another 3.5 years. By then the first A350-900 aircraft should arrive. Ordering more B777-300ER could have the following rationalities then:

• Just more growth...well, it is Emirates!
• Dumping the A350-900/-1000 order altogether - unlikely!
• These will in fact be orders for a B777-8 or B777-9 - not too likely at this point, but not completely impossible!

Also, who knows - rumor is that Emirates will also order 30 more A380 - maybe they will announce to be the launch customer for the A380-900...