B777 Classic / B777X gap

Scott Hamilton has a new projection regarding the production gap of the B777 Classis (see here and here).
Looking at my own model I come to similar conclusions. According to my information, which might not be the newest and most accurate any more, but should not be too far off the current planning at Boeing, the complete production rollover from the current B777 Classic to the B777X should be done by  early 2023, as is shown in Scotts picture.
According to my math and including the six aircraft which were booked in January I get a gap of 249 aircraft which needs to be sold to keep the production rate at 7.33 until the B777X takes over full production in 2023. I started the 7.33 rate in Q2 2019 here, when the  B777X "feathers in" the production (using "Boeing tech talk" here).

If we go down to a rate of 7 aircraft a month in early 2018 we would end up with 214 open production positions.

I think this clearly shows the need of a rate cut for the B777 Classic and that this rate cut has to come soon. We will see how hard analysts will question Boeing today on that. But meanwhile it seems that Boeing acknowledged that need...


UPDATE: Boeing just announced to cut production to 7 aircraft per month in 2017. When I put that into my model, Boeing is still 198 oders short. This first production cut of the B777 Classic might not have been the last one.

Widebody Order Gap Update Septermber 2015

Another update of the „bridge situation” for both the A330ceo/neo and the B777/B777X:

There has been some moves regarding the A330. In August Airbus announced some more orders, 22 of them from undisclosed customers. Whether these orders are part of the 45 aircraft order from China is not clear (yet), so there is some uncertainty around it.

On the other side AirAsia X canceled most of their outstanding A330ceo orders, as I suspected back in March this year. But the cancellation is not yet in the orderbook, so we have to keep in mind that the “real” number of open orders is 12 less than in the O&D Excel Sheet. Plus 15 less for Kingfisher of course. Some other risks remain as I mentioned before.

On the other hand the announced purchases of four aircraft from EVA and four by South

Widebody Order Gap Update post PAS15

Here is another round of the "Widebody Order Gap" analysis.

First have a look at the A330, as more happened here than at the Boeing side.
Saudia became the launch customer for the regional version of the A330 at the Paris Air Show. ordering 20 aircraft. Another A330-200 was ordered by ALC and there are commitments from EVA Air for four A330.
Since then South Korea choose the A330 MRTT as their next tanker and will order four of the type.
Finally, China will order 45 A330 and has an option for a further 30.

Widebody Order Gaps

A lot has been written in the past about the orders that Airbus and Boeing need for the A330ceo and the B777 (non-X) to fill the production lines until the A330neo and the B777X will take over full production.
I started to collect the backlogs for both aircraft every month to see how the backlog will change over time. With the current or announced future production rates I can then calculate how many orders both aircraft will need.
Of course there are some open questions that will influence the number orders needed to fill the so-called gap:

• How will production rates change until the new aircraft will enter service

A350 overweight?

Airbus quietly unveiled new payload-range data for the three A350 models on it's website.
The A350-900 now seats 315 (was 314), but flies 350nm less: 7,750nm.
The A350-800 now seats 276 (was 270), but flies 250nm less: 8,250nm
The A350-1000 now seats 369 (was 350), but flies 400nm less: 8,000nm

As this comes about 5 months after first flight I guess it has something to do with the initial performance of the aircraft. What it is exactly we cannot know. It could be:

• higher than anticipated SFC of the Trent XWB engines
• higher aircraft weight which now became clear cannot be brought down
• aerodynamic inefficiencies

What strikes my eyes that the one more passenger in the A350-900 (for whom we suggest a generous extra weight of 300lbs including seat etc.) costs more range than the six passengers more in the -800. And the 19 extra passengers cost only 50nm more than the one passenger in the -900. Although the -1000 is structural different than the -800 and the -900 and the engines are different too, this is not really conclusive.

I guess we can expect some argueing duels between John Leahy and Randy Tinseth over these new numbers in Dubai next week. Randy will not miss out to bash the A350 for ranges that are (nominally) again not meeting Emirates range expectations (DXB-LAX) whereas "his" B777-9 will do so (although I would expect Emirates to fly these long routes with a 3 class layout with less than 350 passengers in a A350-1000). And John Leahy will try and find a way to spin something positive around these numbers...

UPDATE: in fact these numbrs are NOT NEW and where already shown in 2011, long before the first flight and probably also the SFC of the certificated Trent XWB became clear.

Paris Air Show 2013 - The Widebody Show

After the 2011 edition of the Paris Air Show was dominated by the A320neo, this year seems to be the show of the Widebodies. The usual suspects as Emirates and Qatar will surely play a major role here, as we can read here (as for Qatar) and here (as for Emirates). Although the B777X is not mentioned in the first article we can be sure that Qatar will also be one of the first customers for the then largest twin. Probably not only the B777X will get it's first orders but also the B787-10 will see a formal launch with a first wave of orders. Airbus, of course, will try not to stand by and have it's own order book filled, mainly that of the A350.
The future of the A380 could play a role in conjunction with the launch of the B777X as the seat costs of the double decker will come under pressure once the B777-9 will enter service. So we might hear what Airbus has on it's plate for 2020 and beyond, as also Ben Sandilands suggests - although he thinks that might need a little bit more time.