Widebody Order Gap Update Septermber 2015

Another update of the „bridge situation” for both the A330ceo/neo and the B777/B777X:

There has been some moves regarding the A330. In August Airbus announced some more orders, 22 of them from undisclosed customers. Whether these orders are part of the 45 aircraft order from China is not clear (yet), so there is some uncertainty around it.

On the other side AirAsia X canceled most of their outstanding A330ceo orders, as I suspected back in March this year. But the cancellation is not yet in the orderbook, so we have to keep in mind that the “real” number of open orders is 12 less than in the O&D Excel Sheet. Plus 15 less for Kingfisher of course. Some other risks remain as I mentioned before.

On the other hand the announced purchases of four aircraft from EVA and four by South

Widebody Order Gap Update - B777 and A330

Leeham News and Comment has a story today that both Jet Airways and Kenya Airways want to get rid of their B777-300ER. Jet Airways has ten of the type while Kenya Airways has three. Scott Hamilton notes that this could build up to the pressure for Boeing to sell the last B777-300ER until the B777X will go into service in late 2019 the earliest. So let us have a look how many B777-300ER (and B777F) Boeing needs to sell to bridge production without any cut. Also, have a look how Airbus

A330ceo order gap update

Airbus last week announced to lower the A330 production to 6 units a month from the 1^st quarter of 2016 on. Today the rate is at 10 per month, coming down to 9 in the last quarter of this year.

Widebody Order Gaps

A lot has been written in the past about the orders that Airbus and Boeing need for the A330ceo and the B777 (non-X) to fill the production lines until the A330neo and the B777X will take over full production.
I started to collect the backlogs for both aircraft every month to see how the backlog will change over time. With the current or announced future production rates I can then calculate how many orders both aircraft will need.
Of course there are some open questions that will influence the number orders needed to fill the so-called gap:

• How will production rates change until the new aircraft will enter service