That just caught my eye: after AirAsia announced to buy Batavia Air, merges them with Indonesia AirAsia and thereby becomes a real competitor to Lion Air, now Lion Air (together with NADI) strikes back in AirAsia's home country.
Competition in Southeast Asia will get hard in the next few years. But the region is the one with the highest growth and everyone wants to get piece of the cake.
Will the new airline place a large narrowbody order? Or will they be fed from Lion Air's existing orderbook for B737-900ER/-MAX9? Next Tuesday could be interesting - and AirAsia already announced that they want to place an order for 50-100 more A320 (ceo I guess) at the Berlin Air Show (ILA), also next week.
9/07/2012
9/03/2012
Surprising engine choice
Last week Aviation Week came out with a story that Philippine Airlines opted for the V2500 and PW1100G for their ordered A321ceo/neo fleet and chose the Trent700 for their new A330-300 fleet.
As of today the whole PAL fleet is powered by either CFM or GE engines this would be a surprise if true - but also shows that PW gained market power through the buy of the RR share in the IAE consortium.
Looking at the A321 in particular though, the choice of the V2500 is not that surprising. From here I pulled all A320 deliveries from this year through August 31: about 84% of all delivered A321 have the V2500. In contrast, about 60% of the A319 and A320 were delivered with the CFM56. As the A320 counts for roughly 76.5% of all A320 family deliveries and the A319 for 7.5%, the CFM56 has the lead with 53.2% market share over the V2500. This is slightly down from 2011, when the CFM56 had a share of 56% for the whole year. In 2009 I found that the market share of the CFM56 was 61%. So with the shift to larger narrowbodies, like I described earlier, the market share in the narrowbody engine segment also changes.
As of today the whole PAL fleet is powered by either CFM or GE engines this would be a surprise if true - but also shows that PW gained market power through the buy of the RR share in the IAE consortium.
Looking at the A321 in particular though, the choice of the V2500 is not that surprising. From here I pulled all A320 deliveries from this year through August 31: about 84% of all delivered A321 have the V2500. In contrast, about 60% of the A319 and A320 were delivered with the CFM56. As the A320 counts for roughly 76.5% of all A320 family deliveries and the A319 for 7.5%, the CFM56 has the lead with 53.2% market share over the V2500. This is slightly down from 2011, when the CFM56 had a share of 56% for the whole year. In 2009 I found that the market share of the CFM56 was 61%. So with the shift to larger narrowbodies, like I described earlier, the market share in the narrowbody engine segment also changes.
Second birthday
Last Friday aeroturbopower held it's 2nd birthday. Thanks for all who read and commented. I know that my personal viewings do not please everyone, but this is life, isn't it? It would be boring if everyone agrees with everything. There have been 141,782 viewings in the past year, taking the overall number to 192,675.
8/28/2012
Expected Airbus Order from China
As german chancellor Angela Merkel visits China this week, it is expected that China will order up to 100 Airbus narrowbodies. Looking at the delivery rate to chinese airlines and the backlog that chinese airlines have with Airbus, an order for 100 aircraft is not too much, even if the bulk of these would be for the ceo version. If I counted correctly there were 125 deliveries of A320 family aircraft between January 2011 and July 2012. The current backlog of chinese airlines is 186 aircraft - at the current delivery rate this is good for about 28 months. At the end of 2014 all the backlog would be gone.
There are an additional 42 orders from lessor ICBC and a MoU for 36 aircraft from CALC though, but these aircraft could also be placed outside China. At best (here: when all aircraft are placed with chinese airlines) the backlog would be Zero at the end of 2015, just when the neo enters service but probably a long time before delivery slots would be available (although some chinese airlines or lessors may have reserved a limited number of slots in advance).
But before the A320neo will be available in larger numbers for chinese airlines (probably then coming from the chinese Airbus factory in Tianjin), Airbus can sell a bunch of ceo aircraft to chinese airlines meanwhile, thereby utilize also the Tianjin factory until the ramp up of the neo provides for a smooth transition there.
What is the situation at Boeing? There were 77 deliveries to chinese airlines from January 2011 until the end of July, a much slower pace than at Airbus. There are 212 open orders from China for the B737NG, good for 53 months of supply at the current delivery rate. This takes us into 2017 but well before the targeted MAX EIS and any open delivery slot for the reengined version of the B737. So another order for the B737NG from China is almost inevitable as well to satisfy the growing chinese aviation market.
A little unknown in the context of narrowbody aircraft supply to chinese airlines is the C919 and when this aircraft will enter into airline service. I do not know anybody who firmly believes that this aircraft will be on time (meaning a 2016 EIS). I would deem a 2018 EIS as a success, an even later date not to be a real surprise. And I would not expect a sudden ramp up to meet a significant part of the demand from chinese airlines.
The other unknown: the chinese economic activity. We are just seeing a considerable slowdown here. Highspeed Rail is another factor which could slow the growth in aviation. Boeing denied that possibility in their Current Market Outlook, but used numbers from 2009 in their presentation. Words from chinese airline managers sound different.
The chinese market is important for both Airbus and Boeing - 20% of all Airbus narrowbodies were delivered to China since January 2011 and 12.5% of all B737NG's went there. So a slowdown of economic activity in China is also of great risk for both manufacturers, in particular for Airbus.
UPDATE: About 30 minutes after I posted this entry, China Southern reported slumping profit due to the economic slowdown.
There are an additional 42 orders from lessor ICBC and a MoU for 36 aircraft from CALC though, but these aircraft could also be placed outside China. At best (here: when all aircraft are placed with chinese airlines) the backlog would be Zero at the end of 2015, just when the neo enters service but probably a long time before delivery slots would be available (although some chinese airlines or lessors may have reserved a limited number of slots in advance).
But before the A320neo will be available in larger numbers for chinese airlines (probably then coming from the chinese Airbus factory in Tianjin), Airbus can sell a bunch of ceo aircraft to chinese airlines meanwhile, thereby utilize also the Tianjin factory until the ramp up of the neo provides for a smooth transition there.
What is the situation at Boeing? There were 77 deliveries to chinese airlines from January 2011 until the end of July, a much slower pace than at Airbus. There are 212 open orders from China for the B737NG, good for 53 months of supply at the current delivery rate. This takes us into 2017 but well before the targeted MAX EIS and any open delivery slot for the reengined version of the B737. So another order for the B737NG from China is almost inevitable as well to satisfy the growing chinese aviation market.
A little unknown in the context of narrowbody aircraft supply to chinese airlines is the C919 and when this aircraft will enter into airline service. I do not know anybody who firmly believes that this aircraft will be on time (meaning a 2016 EIS). I would deem a 2018 EIS as a success, an even later date not to be a real surprise. And I would not expect a sudden ramp up to meet a significant part of the demand from chinese airlines.
The other unknown: the chinese economic activity. We are just seeing a considerable slowdown here. Highspeed Rail is another factor which could slow the growth in aviation. Boeing denied that possibility in their Current Market Outlook, but used numbers from 2009 in their presentation. Words from chinese airline managers sound different.
The chinese market is important for both Airbus and Boeing - 20% of all Airbus narrowbodies were delivered to China since January 2011 and 12.5% of all B737NG's went there. So a slowdown of economic activity in China is also of great risk for both manufacturers, in particular for Airbus.
UPDATE: About 30 minutes after I posted this entry, China Southern reported slumping profit due to the economic slowdown.
8/14/2012
Narrowbody Market Shift
AirInsight last week published a report about the narrowbody market, especially about the 100-149 seat segment. What they found is that - in their opinion - the failure of aircraft in this segment was due to either weak OEM's (and I guess that this means that the OEM was undercapitalized) or due to the fact that the aircraft were no clean sheet designs optimized for that market segments but rather derivatives of (mostly) larger planes. As such a "shrink", an airplane carries a lot of weight that is not needed for it's role. For example the wings are too large and heavy, as they were designed for the original and larger aircraft.
The only aircraft that is currently in production and is a point design is the EMB190/195 family - where the EMB195 seems to be a bit underpowered in terms of takeoff length at MTOW, but the thrust is OK for typically flown routes below 1000nm.
The only aircraft that is currently in production and is a point design is the EMB190/195 family - where the EMB195 seems to be a bit underpowered in terms of takeoff length at MTOW, but the thrust is OK for typically flown routes below 1000nm.
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