Payload Range Diagram

After my last post a debate started about the range of the B737MAX-8 and -9, precisely whether these ranges can only be achieved with an additional fuel tank. It seems like (and Scott Hamilton pointed us to that) that Boeing already said that the MAX-9 range of 3595nm is reached with an additional fuel tank. Boeing did not say anything about the MAX-8 fuel tank configuration to reach 3640nm of range, but it seems logical that this will also be only achievable with the additional fuel tank.
A further hint to that is the difference between the different OEW and MTOW gains, relative to the NG.

Even more doubts about B737MAX

I obtained a very interesting article from "Airline Economics", a publication from Aviation News. As it is a subscriber only magazine, I cannot upload the full article, but I will quote some interesting statements of the story called "A question of circumstance":

1. Regarding the engine competition on the A320neo between the GTF and the LEAP-1A: "The end result is that you've got a really big gap between a P&W Neo and a CFMi Neo." To clarify: the gap is in favor of the P&W GTF and Airline Economics is quoting an senior industry expert here, who expects the LEAP to have a 4% disadvantage (what in my eyes is maybe a little bit too much).
2. Regarding engine competition in the marketplace: "Airline Economics learned early last year that

GTF for B737MAX?

Rumors are spilling over and over since the ISTAT Americas conference in March that Boeing is seriously looking at the P&W GTF as a second engine option in addition to the LEAP-1B for the B737MAX. Aspire Aviation has a long article about the ongoing optimisation of the MAX here and Scott Hamilton is quoted in an article by the New Mexico Business Weekly here. A reason for these rumors seems to be the lack of confirmed orders for the MAX so far. There are only three customers who have ordered the MAX, all others only delivered commitments to the Boeing Headquarter so far. Sure, the year is long, so there is enough time for Boeing to convert the commitments to firm and credible orders, especially as Boeing might be keen to make a similar splash with the MAX at Farnborough as Airbus did with the Neo at Le Bourget last year. But as now there are these rumors about a possible second engine, the committed customers might want to wait and see if there is some truth behind them. So firming up the commitments before there is a final word from Boeing (or P&WA) in either way might be a challenge.
Scott Hamilton expects a decision in the next months - that could also coincide with Farnborough...

Definitive LEAP1-B fan diameter!(?)

Yesterday at the ISTAT Americas conference Mike Bair from Boeing revealed that the LEAP-1B fan diameter for the B737MAX now stands at 68.4". When Boeing and CFM for the first time officially announced a fan diameter for the LEAP1-B in November 2011 (Press Release), it was 68", 7" more than the fan diameter of the CFM56-7BE of the current B737NG.
In the meantime there were news in different but reliable media (LeehamNews, aspire aviation) that the diameter went up to 68 3/4" or 68.5". So now it is 68.4" - what does that tell us?

1. Size matters - although Boeing denies that. Well, of course there is a sweet spot for every aircraft/engine combination, as Scott Hamilton writes in a recent column, so you can't go everywhere with fan size. But apparently CFM still tries to maximize the fan diameter of the LEAP-1B so it just fits under the wing and to get the best possible fuel burn for the aircraft. That means that 68" is not the sweet spot, but that is is somewhere higher.
2. It means that the definition of the engine is probably still not finished yet. If the fan size changes, this potentially changes everything else - at least if you want to maximize efficiency of the whole engine. In turn that means that there is still a lot work for Boeing to define to pylon and the pylon/wing interface.

So stay tuned for the next MAX fan diameter...

Airbus: GTF better than LEAP...

I obtained an interesting note from Forecast International, itself claiming to be the "Leading Provider of Aerospace, Defense, Electronics and Power Systems Intelligence. Here it is:

Ryanair and B737MAX

Not often I tend to agree with the outspoken Ryanair CEO Michael O´Leary, nicknamed by the twitter community with @MichaelOhReally. But when he recently talked about the B737 MAX, I had to agree with him. He said that he has been impressed by the fuel burn improvement the A320neo promises to deliver, but he is not impressed by the B737 MAX and said that the fuel born improvement is inferior.
Particularly he fears that the heavier CFM LEAP-1B engines and the subsequent heavier airframe will offset the better SFC, when compared to the CFM56-7B(E).
Meanwhile I had the opportunity to read the latest

NEO and MAX

In the last few days we saw a few more orders and commitments for the A320neo and B737 MAX. Here is a list:

A320neo:

50 Qatar (+30 options)

50 ALAFCO (+30 options)

30 ACG

45 Spirit Airlines

30 Volaris

B737 MAX:

201 Lion Air (+150 options)

35 ACG

So we now know three committed customers for the B737 MAX out of the nine customers that committed for 700 aircraft - the third one of course being American Airlines, triggering the launch of the B737 MAX with their rejection of the also proposed Boeing NSA and their commitment to take 100 B737 MAX and an option for another 60.

The Lion Air commitment is significant:

Embraer decides in favor of EJet's

Embraer decided to abandon plans for a new 5 abreast aircraft for now and instead opted to reengine to EJet's in the latter half of the decade - EIS could be in 2018. Given that Embraer could not do both at the same time - financially, but also due to manpower restrictions, as the KC-390 is in development also, this seems to be a wise decision.

Let us look at the timeline: in 2018 all new engines currently under development for the MRJ, CSeries, the A320neo, the B737MAX, the C919 and the MS-21 will be in service. Of course one could ask at least in case of the latter two if the EIS dates for these will stay where they are now. But Embraer will have a good idea how the engines - two versions of the LEAP (the C919 LEAP-1C will have the same turbo machinery as the A320neo LEAP-1A) and three types of the GTF (MRJ, CSeries and A320neo/MS-21) - are doing during development. An EIS in 2018 would probably mean an engine selection about 5 years earlier, around 2013, maybe 2014. By that time the PW1200G and PW1500G are flying at least on the respective aircraft prototypes and the first PW1100G engine should run on ground (the LEAP-1A seems to be a bit behind).

News about MAX

Jon Ostrower (Flightblogger)  and Scott Hamilton both are reporting about a presentation given by Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh at Goldman Sachs.