In the last couple of weeks a new discussion about the so-called „Middle
of the Market“ or “MoM” aircraft broke out. Apart from that nobody really knows
what this aircraft should look like (B757 successor or B767 successor or both,
narrowbody or widebody, scalable to cover the B737 market or not?) or every
potential customer wanting something different, I do not really believe in the
launch of such an aircraft in the near future.
Why?
Airbus has
no interest in such an aircraft. They have a good market position with their
A321neo, especially the LR version and the future A330-800, although I don’t
foresee large order volumes for that aircraft. For sure Airbus is studying the
MoM, but (for now) for the pure purpose of looking into what Boeing could do
and if and how Airbus would have to react to it.
Boeing
would be the one to launch such an aircraft. But do they have to do it? Although
the B737MAX has less orders than the A320neo, the amount of orders the B737MAX
got is massive. The B737MAX8 is right in the sweet spot of the market and has a
small advantage in costs per seat against the A320neo – if the LEAP-1B engine
performs as advertised, what remains to be seen.
The B737MAX8
just had it’s first flight. the –MAX9 and the –MAX7 have to follow. So why
unsettle your (potential) customers talking too much and eventually launching a
new aircraft that would at least partly overlap with the B737MAX family?
Also,
Boeing will probably feel a drop in cash flow during the transition of the B777
Classic to the B777X between 2020 and 2022, just when the MoM would need large
sums of money for R&D spending.
But there
is another aspect why I do not believe in a launch of MoM for a, say, 2024
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