Widebody Order Gap Update Septermber 2015

Another update of the „bridge situation” for both the A330ceo/neo and the B777/B777X:

There has been some moves regarding the A330. In August Airbus announced some more orders, 22 of them from undisclosed customers. Whether these orders are part of the 45 aircraft order from China is not clear (yet), so there is some uncertainty around it.
On the other side AirAsia X canceled most of their outstanding A330ceo orders, as I suspected back in March this year. But the cancellation is not yet in the orderbook, so we have to keep in mind that the “real” number of open orders is 12 less than in the O&D Excel Sheet. Plus 15 less for Kingfisher of course. Some other risks remain as I mentioned before.
On the other hand the announced purchases of four aircraft from EVA and four by South Korea are not in the sheet already.
The chart shows 28 free delivery slots. Adding and subtracting all the above gets us to 47 free delivery slots. Now the question is how many of the 45 orders from China are (if any) already in the books and how many of the 30 options will be exercised.

Now have another look at the B777 and the bridge to the B777X:

The situation is not that much better than after the Paris Air Show. More than 300 open slots are available and I already reduced overall production by 1 aircraft a month as Boeing argued that 1 B777X would be “worth” 2 current B777 when feathering in production.

I also went through the customers with open orders and found some risks there:

  • Aeroflot (3) for obvious political reasons
  • Air France (2) for obvious Air France related reasons
  • Air India (3) for obvious reasons
  • Pakistan Int. Airlines (5), see Air India

So there are 13 orders “weak”.

There are 17 orders from unidentified customers.

Still, a lot more to do for Boeing to fill production than for Airbus.

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