The next year

The next year is ahead of us and after 2010 ended on a high note with the launch of the A320NEO, 2011 can be expected to be once again a very interesting year for aviation.
With oil prices again rising towards $100 a barrel, one could expect orders to be shifted to aircraft with lower fuelburn, especially the Bombardier CSeries and the A320NEO. Maybe the first orders for the -NEO will be announced in January, as Scott Hamilton predicts.
Maybe we see some orders for the CSeries complete until the end of January, when the financial year of Bombardier ends.
If there is indeed a flush of orders for those aircraft, we should hear something out of Seattle (aka Chicago) regarding the future of the B737 soon. Southwest seems to prefer a reengining as they do not believe that Boeing will be able to pull out a successor around 2020.
Embraer is also about to decide what to do with their EJets and whether they should develop an aircraft that is larger and can compete with the CS300 (at least).

My personal winner of the last two years, regardless of a lack of big orders, is the CSeries:
1. The CS100 and the CS300 will be the most efficient aircraft in their categories.
2. The A319NEO cannot really compete with the CS300 and is only of interest for airlines that operate the whole A320 today.
3. A reengined B737-700 could not compete with the CS300 as well.
4. If Embraer decides to develop a larger aircraft to compete with the CS300, it will be years out.
5. The successor families of the A320n and the B737 will probably start at today's A320 and B737-800 size - there won't be equivalents to the A319 and the B737-700 in my view.

Have a nice 2011!

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