12/10/2013

Fifth Season Time in Toulouse

The end of the year is near and so it is fifth season time again for John Leahy. Tomorrow we will see if he can sell some 60-90 aircraft to Air Canada, believed to be A320neo and A321neo's (or B737MAX-8/-9 if his counterparts at Boeing succeed).
But there are quite some more sales to complete this year and chances are good that Leahy will top the old record from 2011, when the A320neo had it's first full year of sales.
So what can we expect apart from Air Canada? Another awaited order for narrowbodies could come from Monarch. Both Air Canada and Monarch could also put a CSeries order in their shopping cart, but I expect that at least at Air Canada Embraer will pitch their EJet E2 against the CSeries.
Back to Airbus - announced but not yet completed sales for the A320ceo/neo are:
  • VietJet 20 A320ceo/42 A320neo
  • Qingdao/Loong 16 A320ceo / 27 A320neo
  • Spring 30 A320ceo
  • CASC 42 A320ceo
  • Air China / Shenzen 40 A320ceo / 60 A320neo
  • Hong Kong Aviation 60 A320neo
  • Lybian Wings 4 A320neo
Apart from that we can expect a confirmation of the 50 A380 for Emirates and the 20 A380 for Doric.
There is also a MoU for 3 A350-900 from Lybian Wings and one for 3 A330-200 from Air Algerie. The confirmation of the Kuwait Air order for 15 A320neo and 10 A350-900 will probably fall into next year as a MoU was just signed this week.
I did not keep track of all announced and not completes sales, so there could be more...

The old record from 2011 was as follows:
  • 1608 gross orders
    • 1236 A320neo
    •   234 A320ceo
    •     99 A330
    •     10 A350
    •     29 A380
  • 1419 net orders
At the end of November the order book was
  • 1373 gross orders
    •  751 A320neo
    •  336 A320ceo
    •    48 A330
    •  236 A350
    •      0 A380
  • 1314 net orders
With the above mentioned orders (but without Air Canada and Monarch) it could look like this
  • 1788 gross orders
    • 944 A320neo
    • 484 A320ceo
    •   51 A330
    • 239 A350
    •   70 A380
One thing that could make us wonder is how many A320ceo's are still being sold. 484 aircraft would be  close to a book-to-bill ratio of 1! In fact, Airbus delivered 445 A320ceo's until the end of November. To make the picture complete, there were 44 cancellations of A320ceo's this year until November.

I will try to make a similar comparison for Boeing the next days...

2 comments:

  1. Aerolineas also signed a MoU for four A330s.

    http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/aerolineas-tentatively-signs-for-four-a330s-392916/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Air Canada goes for Boeing with 61 firm orders for Boeing 737max

    ReplyDelete