3/19/2015

CFM LEAP-1B missing SFC


The revelation by Aspire Aviation about the performance shortfalls of the CFM LEAP engine family did not came totally unexpected. Rumours have been around for a long time. But the severity of the shortfall in the LEAP-1B engine is somewhat shocking, at least for Boeing customers. The shortfall of 2% in the case of the LEAP-1A is relatively unspectacular: the shortfalls of recent engines at EIS like the GEnx and the Trent 1000 were higher. A shortfall of 2% can be corrected with a suitable performance improvement program (PIP), but a

3/10/2015

Further A320 rate hikes needed!


Just a week after – unsurprisingly – announcing a further rate increase for the A320, John Leahy yesterday at the ISATAT Americas talked about further increasing production and potentially announcing this until the end of the year.
Given the current backlog of the A320ceo the rate increase perfectly makes sense –

3/05/2015

A330ceo order gap update

Airbus last week announced to lower the A330 production to 6 units a month from the 1st quarter of 2016 on. Today the rate is at 10 per month, coming down to 9 in the last quarter of this year.

2/18/2015

Widebody Order Gaps

A lot has been written in the past about the orders that Airbus and Boeing need for the A330ceo and the B777 (non-X) to fill the production lines until the A330neo and the B777X will take over full production.
I started to collect the backlogs for both aircraft every month to see how the backlog will change over time. With the current or announced future production rates I can then calculate how many orders both aircraft will need.
Of course there are some open questions that will influence the number orders needed to fill the so-called gap:
  • How will production rates change until the new aircraft will enter service

2/16/2015

A320neo vs. B737MAX market share

At last week's PNAA conference there was one more time the may be never-ending discussion about how Airbus and Boeing will split their market share in the narrowbody market (there is no talk about how Bombardier will be doing with the CSeries, but this is would be a complete different - and at the moment quite sad - story).
This discussion was initiated by Richard Aboulafia, who predicted a 60% market share for the A320neo. Boeing's VP Marketing Randy Tinseth soon dismissed that, saying that he believes Boeing will have a 50% market share with the B737MAX (and he would do a bad job if he would not do so, of course).