2/18/2015

Widebody Order Gaps

A lot has been written in the past about the orders that Airbus and Boeing need for the A330ceo and the B777 (non-X) to fill the production lines until the A330neo and the B777X will take over full production.
I started to collect the backlogs for both aircraft every month to see how the backlog will change over time. With the current or announced future production rates I can then calculate how many orders both aircraft will need.
Of course there are some open questions that will influence the number orders needed to fill the so-called gap:
  • How will production rates change until the new aircraft will enter service

2/16/2015

A320neo vs. B737MAX market share

At last week's PNAA conference there was one more time the may be never-ending discussion about how Airbus and Boeing will split their market share in the narrowbody market (there is no talk about how Bombardier will be doing with the CSeries, but this is would be a complete different - and at the moment quite sad - story).
This discussion was initiated by Richard Aboulafia, who predicted a 60% market share for the A320neo. Boeing's VP Marketing Randy Tinseth soon dismissed that, saying that he believes Boeing will have a 50% market share with the B737MAX (and he would do a bad job if he would not do so, of course).

1/13/2015

After Airbus Press Conference: Rate Increase and LEAP-1A delay?

Airbus today announced their final 2014 orders and delivery results. Beside a new delivery record there is one noticable item that begs two questions: the increasing backlog of the A320ceo shouts and screams for a (very) near term announcement of a rate increase, which was probably decided some months ago. Also, it puts into question if the CFM LEAP-1A, the second engine for the A320neo, will be available on time. The PW1100G seems to be "out of the woods", getting certification late last year and Airbus CEO Bregier during the Investors Days in December said that he expects the first delivery of the A320neo in November 2015.
The backlog for the A320ceo stands now at 1508. This is 38 more than at the end of November, which I analyzed here. Subtracting all 102 "suspicious" orders gets us to 1406 open orders. The still not booked order from CASGC would lead us then to 1476 open orders for about 1164 delivery positions until 2018. So Airbus overbooked the A320ceo lines by 250 aircraft at current production rates.
Now, as I said above, I think a rate increase is coming for sure. For one to clear the A320ceo backlog as soon as possible, but also to be able to offer earlier production slots in upcoming campaigns.
As for the overbooking of the A320ceo, there could also be another reason: the LEAP-1A has still not flown on the GE Flying Testbed. At the time the LEAP-1C began the test campaign on the other GE testbed in early October CFM said that the -1A would follow within a month. Now we are two months later...maybe something was found during the -1C test campaign that needed a change for both variants?

12/10/2014

A320ceo and B737NG backlogs

As I wrote briefly last week, it looks like Airbus is increasingly overbooking the A320ceo. But what does "overbooking" mean? Well, I always compare the remaining backlog to what I think was the

12/05/2014

Airbus A320ceo overbooking

Today the Airbus Order & Deliveries spreadsheet for November 2014 was published. There are 89 new orders for the A320ceo family (the most from unidentified customers and my feeling is that these are chinese airlines). There is also the cancellation of 10 A321ceo's from Jetblue - they are taking 10 more A321neo instead. So there are 79 more net orders for the A320ceo line, which was heavily overbooked even before these new orders. I will do a deeper analysis next week, also including the situation for the B737NG.