Three in a row, two in a week..

There is some movement in the A320neo engine market right now, it seems. P&W scored three "wins" in a row recently. After BOCA announced an order for 15 A320neo to be powered with the PW1100G-JM, this week both Tigerair and ANA selected the Geared Turbo Fan for 37 and 30 aircraft.
I would expect that we will see more decisions about A320neo engine options being taken this year as EIS is now less than 20 months away. The PW1100G-JM should gain certification this summer so that it will maybe have an advantage in customer confidence (and this is badly needed by P&W after the PW6000 disaster).
Right now the GTF has a slightly larger market share with 896 aircraft (866 shown here by pdxlight plus 30 by ANA) to be powered versus 827 to be powered by the LEAP-1A. But there are large campaigns waiting for a winner, like Lion Air (174 aircraft), American Airlines (130 aircraft) and easyjet (100 aircraft), so the picture can turn by any of these campaigns decided.

Airbus raises order target

OK, John Leahy is a little bit late to acknowledge there are more orders to come this year (at least later than me) and he now expects more than 1000 orders, instead of more than 800 and the initial goal of more than 700. And as we know how John Leahy ticks, he never wants to under-deliver and we can be pretty sure that he already has the customers in mind which will make him reach that target.
At the end of June there were 758 orders. Then Easyjet got the OK from their shareholders to order 35 A320ceo and 100 A320neo. Then there is the MoU from Hong Kong Aviation for 60 A320neo and the MoU from Doric for 20 A380. Also there is an commitment for 2 more A380 from Lufthansa. The order from SAS for 8 A350-900 and 4 A330-300 needs to be firmed up also, as well as the order from Kuwait Airways for 25 aircraft. Here we are: 1012!
Then there are new orders still to be decided: Monarch, Vueling, Lufthansa (widebodies), flydubai, Air Canada and probably some others also.
Still room to lift the target once or twice...

Pre Paris Air Show tidbits

The Air Show is only three days away now and we have the first flight of the A350. So, no wonder that we see a lot of news stories coming out. Here are some of them:

1. Enders expects orders for "hundreds" of Airbus aicraft: As I wrote earlier I always thought that John Leahy and Tom Enders were overly pessimistic with their forecast of "only" 700 orders, later expecting 700-750 orders, later upping that number to more than 800. At the end of May there were 517 net and 493 net orders. Add 102 orders for Lufthansa (30 A320ceo, 70 A320neo and 2 A380), then add Air France for 25 A350-900, add 100 A320 for Air China and Shenzen, another 18 A330 and 42 A320 for CASC and you already have 804 net orders - all these orders are announced. Then add the "hundreds" we will see next week and Airbus will easily have more than 1,000 net orders for the year with the Dubai Air Show still to come...

2. Airbus is now (again) the front runner at easyjet. We will see how that campaign ends up. I guess it is not over yet and I do not expect the deal to be finished during the Paris Air Show. Profit margins for the winning manufacturers (aircraft and engines) will probably be dismal.

3. Not unexpected: Boeing will launch the B787-10 at PAS13. This was in the "rumour mill" for a long time now. Boeing will kick-start the B787-10 with a bunch of orders from Singapore Airlines (which already came forward), United, ALC and British Airways. I could imagine one or two other "surprise" customers.

4. Rany Tinseth thinks that this will be the Show of the Widebodies. Hmm, read that somewhere before I think. He should definitely be right about that!

B737MAX vs. A320neo: Backlog Comparison

Boeing and TUI Travel today announced a commitment for 60 B737MAX (-8 and -9 versions) with an option for a further 90 aircraft. Boeing now has 1471 firm orders and commitments for the B737MAX. Airbus has, including the to-be-firmed order from Air China and Shenzen Airlines for a

Narrowbody Outlook 2013

After Boeing and Airbus unveiled their final order and delivery numbers for 2012 it is now time to turn to what is ahead. What will 2013 bring us in the narrowbody segment?

Let’s begin with deliveries – this is quite easy:

·         Airbus stabilizes their output rate at 42/month and will deliver 480-485 A320 family aircraft (ca. 11.5*42 as we have to take the summer break into account)

·         Boeing will increase the delivery rate towards  38 B737NG’s per month and therefore deliver between 450-460 narrowbodies.

·         Bombardier will deliver the first CS100 in 2014, so A & B are (probably for the last time) alone.