Let’s begin with deliveries – this is quite easy:
·
Airbus stabilizes their output rate at 42/month
and will deliver 480-485 A320 family aircraft (ca. 11.5*42 as we have to take
the summer break into account)
·
Boeing will increase the delivery rate
towards 38 B737NG’s per month and
therefore deliver between 450-460 narrowbodies.
·
Bombardier will deliver the first CS100 in 2014,
so A & B are (probably for the last time) alone.
But what is more interesting is: how many orders will they see – both A & B, but, of course, also Bombardier.
The
forecast from Airbus is for 700 gross orders. For 2012 the original forecast
was for 600, the upped to 650 orders and at the end there were 914. The
question is: was John Leahy too pessimistic or did he give a low target to the
public in order to be an “overachiever”?
I
don’t know what Boeing’s ales target is – maybe we hear something on Wednesdays
Q4 Earnings Call. But
let’s look at what we know (or thing to know) what is coming in 2013 in terms
of narrowbody orders:
·
There is still the “elephant in the room”: Lion
Air with the rumored order of 100, 200 or even more A320’s.
·
There is Turkish Airlines, shopping for more than 100
narrowbodies. I could imagine a split order between Airbus and Boeing here,
as one manufacturer alone might not be able to satisfy the THY’s appetite in time. But if THY wants to have closer ties
with Lufthansa in the future, they could be drawn to the Airbus side, as
Lufthansa wants to streamline purchasing through harmonizing the fleet through
it’s own airlines and ideally inside the Star Alliance.
·
American
Airlines can now form up their order for 130 A320ceo, 130 A320neo and 100
B737MAX. (the order for 100 B737NG was firmed in 2011 already). We so not
know if the A320ceo will end up as a new order in the books as in 2011 Airbus
and AA said that these aircraft could come from lessors with existing orders.
·
TUI
is looking for a renewal of their fleet and could place an order for 60
aircraft soon. Boeing is the clear front runner here.
·
Vueling is in the process to order narrowbodies - any number between 30 and 60 would be a good
guess. The
size of the order probably depends on Vueling’s role in the IAG. Airbus as
the existing fleet provider is in the lead here, but Vueling is also looking at
Boeing and Bombardier.
·
easyjet is looking for around 100 narrowbodies. Airbus is the natural candidate, although it
was Airbus with an irresistible offer displacing Boeing in 2002, so why shouldn’t
Boeing try to do the same now? And easyjet is also talking to Bombardier about
the CSeries. although the CS300 seems to small for today’ needs at easyjet, as
they are moving from the A319 to the A320. But
the order could also be postponed as easyjet has some options which they could
firm up with Airbus, providing more time to decide and to bargain (and to
delight shareholders). If the announced step-down of CEO Rake has something to
do with the planned order lies in the dark. The
last message is though that management is looking for shareholder approval for the
order in June.
·
India: IndiGo and GoJet both ordered large
numbers of the A320neo. SpiceJet and Jet Airways are the other two large low
cost airlines competing in the market (Air India seems to be focused on their problems
with the B787 (both technically and financially). I would not be surprised to
see orders for the B737MAX from SpiceJet and Jet Airways, as both are B737NG
operators.
·
FlyDubai: the airline expressed interesting the
B737MAX short after it’s announcement in July 2011. More than half of it’s
original order for 50 B737-800NG are delivered now – in less than four years.
So if they want to grow further after the delivery of the last NG they might
have to act now.
·
Lufthansa: LH is one of the initial customers
for the A320neo – but they ordered “just” 30 of them. If one looks at the
current A320 fleet, which is one of the oldest, the conclusion is that they
need more. Not just for the Lufthansa fleet itself, but also for Swiss (their narrowbody
fleet is somewhat younger though), Austrian and Brussels. The Bombardier CSeries, especially
the CS300, could have a future here, too. Let’s wait for the first flight of
the CS100 (in
June?) and we might see some more orders for the CSeries anyway…
·
Air France: same as Lufthansa, except that they
did not order any of the new narrowbodies so far, due to financial
restrictions. The oldest A320 from the
-100 series already left the fleet, but there are still some 1989 vintage
models left…
·
China: the Chinese airlines are somewhat behind
in ordering new narrowbodies – this has something to do with the budgetary planning
in China. But I guess that there are at least some LoI, MoU or something like
that which we will see firmed up this year. Also for the CSeries???
Oh, and then there is Ryanair, of course. Will they order
200 B737NG’s towards the end of this year or not? No guess and no comment from
my side – a guess here would be as meaningful as predicting a CSeries order
from Qatar…
All in all I think we will see again more orders than the
official target from Airbus. Remember the target is the overall number, not the
one for just narrowbodies. And there are still a number of A330, A350 and maybe
A380 deals in the pipeline. Likewise for the B787, B777 and B747-8I (F), of
course.
So far, so good: it's all speculation for now – let’s wait for the real deals!
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