Embraer EJets G2 launch at Paris Air Show

Embraer will host a press conference regarding commercial aviation during the Paris Air Show next week on Monday (see the press release here). My strong guess is that this is where we will see the official launch of the EJet G2 Series.

And I guess Embraer will not only announce the official go-ahead but also will announce one or more first customers for the three-member strong family.

There are a lot of potential candidates:

If you read this 10-Q statement from jetblue carefully, you see that there is a potential order in it. Hint: page 11 and 23 Although it is unlikely that jetblue will act again as a launch customer, according to CEO Barger.

Flybe deferred delivery for 16 E175 by three or four years to 2017-2019. We have to wait until Monday probably, if that leaves the possibility to take the G2 version of the E175, as Flightglobal suggested here. According to a pre-show briefing by GKN Aerospace, the E175G2 would be available from 2019. This would be too late, as only a few of these 16 deferred E175 could be taken in the G2 version. Interestingly the chart shows that the E190/E195 are expected in 2017 and 2018, whereas Embraer previously said that the EJets G2 are scheduled to enter the market in 2018.

Steven Udvar-Hazy praised the G2 version and could be an early customer.

Republic Airways as the largest operator of  EJets worldwide would be a natural candidate as well as Azul as the largest customer for the E195.

Lufthansa also has a sizeable fleet of E190 & E195 but also has the CS100 and CS300 on order (through Swiss). Rumors are there that the options for 30 more CSeries will be converted into firm orders sooner or later.

New scope clauses at United Airlines allow for more 70 seater regional jets, if a “new small narrowbody” (90-120 seats) will be introduced for the mainline fleet. This “new small narrowbody” could either be the CS100 or the E190&E195. If it is the CS100, the CS300 would make sense also as a replacement for the A319 and the B737-700.

Other large customers are Hainan (50 E190) and Air Canada (15 E175 & 45 E190). The E175 are now in the process of being turned over the Sky Regional though.

I would not be surprised if Embraer has more orders for the reengined E190 and E195 at the end of next week than Bombardier has for the CSeries. But as the EJets already have a position with a large customer base in the market, the CSeries still has to find their customer base and is closer to the Airbus and Boeing models, thus has to fight with more “brutal enemies”. So one should not see more orders for the EJets than for the CSeries as a bad sign for the CSeries.