A320neo engine orders at Paris Air Show

The ever-entertaining story about market share on the A320neo family goes into another round at the Paris Air Show. Two years ago CFM hit back hard at P&W during the Air Show. P&W had won the first round of orders back then with ILFC first committing to the PW1100G for 60 of their 100 aircraft strong A320neo order. Also Indigo choose the Geared Turbo Fan as well as Lufthansa.

Then CFM came back after redesigning the LEAP-1A with another (7th) stage of low pressure turbine and a slightly larger fan (78" instead of 75") to gain SFC. CFM then won SAS, Republic, Air Asia, GECAS (no surprise here), the remaining 40 aircraft from ILFC and Virgin America and was in a comfortable lead. During the last two years each of the two manufacturers won a deal here and there and the CFM consortium is still ahead with about 53% of the engine orders. So let's take a look at the A320neo orders which do not have an (announced) engine decision yet and how the picture could change after the Paris Air Show.

One very obvious decision would be that Air Asia will order the LEAP-1A for their second round of A320neo orders (64 aircraft). Outcome: CFM wins!

The largest open decision is that of Lion Air. There were rumors over at leeham.net that Lion choose the GTF, but as Lion Air CEO Rusdi Kirana said that he also thinks about leasing some of the aircraft on order to other airlines a split order would also be a possibility. Anyway, an order for the GTF would be a bit of a steal for P&W, giving that as of now Lion is (of course) a really big CFM customer. Outcome: open!

The next one (from a volume perspective) is American. The pending merger process with US Airways will probably delay things here after the merger is completed, but anything seems possible here after AA ordered the CFM56 for the A319ceo and the V2500 for the A321ceo. Outcome: open!

Pegasus should choose the PW1100G if they want to hold on their deliveries starting in 2015, but they said that the final delivery schedule will depend on the engine selection. Outcome: small advantage for P&W

Lufthansa for their next round of 70 aircraft should choose again the PW1100G if they really want to streamline their fleet in the future. But they also have both engines on their current A320 fleet...outcome: open!

Air China and Shenzen just committed to a combined 60 A320neo's. Both airlines operate fleets with both current engines, so I would guess they will also split their order for the neo engines. In the end the Chinese want to learn from both engines.

Turkish Airlines is a current IAE/V2500 customer for their A320 fleet, but of course also a large CFM customer as they have an almost equal number of B737NG's in their current fleet. The B737MAX order could benefit CFM in the neo engine negotiations...outcome: open!

Norwegian: already selected PW1100G for 50 aircraft - as there are rumors that Norwegian wants to start in the leasing business they could go for the LEAP-1A for the remaining 50 (see Lion Air). Outcome: open, depending on what Norwegian really wants to do with all their aircraft on order. CFM has an edge IF the A320neo are destined (at least in part) for leasing.

ALC: this will very likely be a split between both engines.

LATAM will probably make a joint decision for their two separate orders from former LAN and TAM. As both former separate airlines have both ceo engines in their fleet, the outcome of the decision is completely open.

As for Spirit Airlines it is a must-win for P&W as Spirit is a loyal V2500 customer. All airlines in which Indigo Partners have a stake ordered the V2500. The only unknown is the outcome of the bidding process for Frontier Airlines - if Indigo Partners succeed here and Spirit and Frontier will be merged that could change the picture: Outcome: advantage for P&W.

Interjet: currently operates an CFM56 powered A320 fleet, so CFM should be in the frontrunner position. Outcome: advantage CFM!

Volaris: see Spirit - a must-win for P&W!

BOC Aviation: split buy! Same of ICBC and Avolon. And I would expect ACG to order the PW1100G for their remaining 12 aircraft on order.

Kuwait Airways operates CFM and GE powered aircraft today, so CFM should have an edge.

Philippine Airways: rumored to have chosen the GTF. Would be a steal if true!

Transaero has a large B737NG fleet today, so CFM should have it's grip on that deal. Advantage CFM!

Of course I don't know which of these open decisions will be announced at the Paris Air Show. Most of the decisions look like to be completely open and as some of the deliveries are still far out some of the customers still have plenty of time to choose!