„Premature“ engine upgrades

In the context of my last post I wondered why MTU now starts talking about an upgraded GTF to be delivered in 2019. We are one and a half years away from EIS of the PW1100G on the A320neo and the engine is  - well – not selling bad. Why announcing an upgrade now? To enhance SFC by 3% does not sound cheap - GE and RR needed two improvement packages to bring the engines for the B787 to SFC spevc level.
Furthermore MTU COO Rainer Martens told the press that these enhancements could also be implemented into the other PW1000G family members (PW1200G/PW1700G for MRJ/E175E2 and PW1500G/PW1900G for CSeries/E190E2&E195E2). So we can be sure that all aircraft OEM’s will sooner or later ask for the upgrades, just a couple of years after EIS of their respective aircraft – remember that the E175E2 should have an EIS in 2020, AFTER the PW1100G is available with the upgrade. Sounds like all the development engineers will have secure jobs at P&W, MTU, JAEC and the other PW1000G partners for the years to come. Good for them, bad for the "bean counters" in the companies and the financial breakeven of the engine programs.
For Airbus, the revelation has probably a good and a bad side. The good side is that the A320neo will enhance the competitive position against the B737MAX (and maybe later a CS500), but also the A319neo could be in a better position against the CS300. On the other side, remaining delivery positions for the A320neo in 2018 will be not that easy to fill without giving another discount for not getting the upgrade.

The B757 successor discussion

Yesterday MTU’s COO Rainer Martens revealed during the annual results presentation that there is a plan to upgrade the PW1100G engine for the A320neo with another 3% SFC jump by 2019. On a side note, as the turbo machinery of the PW1100G and the PW1400G are identical,  the MS-21 will also benefit from that as I think that P&W and their partners will not start building  two different engines.

But what does that mean in a broader context?

Firstly, we can be very sure that a similar PIP (Performance Improvement Package) will also be worked out for the LEAP-1A (and the LEAP-1C destined for the COMAC C919, as this engine has the same turbo machinery as well). Another report on a german website cites MTU’s Martens that the 3% improvement are agreed with Airbus so we expect that there is a corresponding  agreement between Airbus and CFM to lower SFC around 2019/20. As the GE9X goes into service by that time frame we can expect a lot of technology transfer from the GE9X to the LEAP-1A – and subsequently to the LEAP-1B for the B737MAX.

Secondly, this makes the business case for any A320neo and B737MAX successor harder. This is why I do not believe in a B757 successor in the time frame that was discussed by Scott Hamilton and others lately. At least not in the sense of a purpose build aircraft. Here is why:

·         The 3% lower SFC for the A321neo (and probably sooner or later also for the B737MAX-9) leads to 100+nm more range, bringing these two aircraft even closer to the capabilities of the B757 today.

·         As of today the A321ceo can do about 95% of all routes flown by the B757 today. And the A321neo can only NOT do five city pairs flown by the B757 today (I go that verbally from Airbus). 

Add the 100 extra miles coming out of the engine improvement and what is left? Maybe three routes, maybe four routes, maybe still all five. Add some improvements to the airframe and what is left then…?

I am  sure there is no business case left then for building a standalone aircraft with the capabilities of the B757. But also as part of a new family of narrowbodies, aka the A30X and the B797, there is no real need to compromise the efficiency of the whole family with a wing that is large enough to cover distances more than what the A320neo/B737MAX families will do. Otherwise Airbus and Boeing could lose market share against a Bombardier CS500 and a forthcoming Embraer small narrowbody  which are designed for ranges less than 3000nm.

But I do not see these new breeds coming a of 2025 as James N. Krebs postulated in this very interesting guest column at Leeham News. But if we see a further 3% improvement from the engines at the end of the decade, how should there be another jump of 20% in fuel burn in 2025? The technology for an aircraft with an EIS must be defined by 2018/19. With a regular tube-and-wing aircraft I cannot see a jump more than 10% from the airframe - if designed for the same range (more range: less efficiency gain for shorter routes). If we take 1% efficiency gain for every year from improved engine design (and that seems optimistic as it gets harder and harder), we get a maximum of 15% versus neo/MAX. Not taken into account that there can still be something done to the existing aircraft as well like building the fuselage from AlLi or enhancing the wing. The business case for an all new aircraft then disappears in my eyes. But I am not a bean counter…err… accountant.

Another question is if someone will do something in the sector left by the likes of the A300-600R and the B767-300(non ER): 250-300 seats, 4000nm max range. Being hinted to think about that, as can be read in the Pudget Sound article. I do not count that as a B757 successor and  I do not know if there is a business case for that but Lufthansa always cried for “people mover” like that.

Embraer bridging between E1 and E2

Much hype there was during and after the Paris Air Show last year, when Embraer launched their EJet E2 family. 365 orders, MoU and LoI from Skywest, ILFC and five unannounced customers sounded like a good start and some media was quick to compare it to the current backlog of the CSeries, which had a similar amount of orders at this time – but 5 years the “launch” LoI from Lufthansa/Swiss.

Now, a few months later, there are “just” two the two orders that were announced at PAS13: 100 aircraft for Skywest (E175E2) with 100 further options and both 25 E190E2 and E195E2 for ILFC also with an equal number of options. None of the five unannounced customers came forward since June 2013 and no other customer was added.

Last week Embraer announced their numbers for orders and deliveries in 2013. Deliveries for the EJets were exactly at plan with 88 for the year. Orders looked great with American, United, Skywest ordering large numbers of E175 and taking even more options.

But let’s have a deeper look in the orderbook: Open Orders at the beginning of the year was at 279:

    1 E170

188 E175

  73 E190

  17 E195

The E170 is obviously one delivery away from dead. It is too small for the North American regional market, where the new sweet spot if 76 seats in two classes and this is where the E175 fits in ideally. The backlog of 73 for the E190 does not look too bad at first glance, but in fact you have to subtract the 24 E190 for Jetblue as they are deferred until after 2020, when the E2 version of the E190 is available and Jetblue made it already clear that they are aiming for a switch to the E2. It could also be that they will abandon the 100 seater altogether by that time and finally cancel the order.

The 7 E190 in the orderbook from flynas (or Nasair) are also questionable, as the airlines is phasing out their EJets they already have. Another shaky part of the order book are the 24 open orders for E175 from flybe. The carrier is deep in a restructuring phase and has to become profitable soon. But let’s keep them in for that following exercise:

Without the 24 E190 for Jetblue the backlog at Jan. 1^st, 2014 was 255 aircraft. With a constant delivery rate of 88 aircraft per year the backlog will be at zero in Q4 2017 2016. But the EIS for the E190E2 is slated for the middle of 2018, the E195E2 should come in 2019 and the E175E2 finally in 2020. So Embraer has

-          to find more customers for the current EJets

or

-          to speed up the development of the E2 family

Well, in essence, they have to do both, I would say!

Embraer first announced the EJet E2 with in January 2013 when they said that they will be powered by PW1700G and PW1900G engines by P&W. These engines are essentially the engines for the Mitsubishi MRJ (PW1200G) and the Bombardier CSeries (PW1500G). These engines are already existing, tested and, in the case of the PW15000G, certificated. This is the big difference between the EJet E2 reengine program and the A320neo and B737MAX program, where the engines are the pacing item.

The EJet E2 aircraft are getting new wings, new undercarriages, a new flight deck and a full fly-by-wire system: sure, these things take their time, but Embraer took a lot of time already to decide how to react to the MRJ, CSeries and the A320neo/B737MAX. So there should have been more than just a concept at the beginning of last year and Embraer is currently testing a full fly-by-wire system with their Legacy 500 Business Jet. In fact, they “learned” so much that they switched to Moog as a supplier for the FBW system for the E2 Jets, as the Parker system contributed a lot to the delay of the Legacy 500/450 program (there could also be another reason behind that switch, as Parker is part of the “GE World” and GE lost the engine contract…).

In short, I think Embraer has to bring forward the E2 program as much as they can – otherwise they would face a production hole – but wait: there is hope: if the Mitsubishi MRJ would be delayed even further, the two big customers (Trans States and Skywest) for the MRJ would be forced to look at alternatives. The only logical aircraft that could replace the MRJ90 deliveries in the 2016/2017 time frame with the same cabin comfort would be the E175E1. This might be the reason why Skywest took options for 100 E175E1 last year when placing the order for 40 E175E1. Also United, American Airlines and Republic took further options for the E175E1. It looks like there is a considerable “hedging” against a further MRJ delay and this might help Embraer to bridge to gap between the current E1 and the forthcoming E2.

Airbus Order and Deliveries 2013

The final numbers for orders and deliveries from Airbus came out yesterday. There were no big surprises - just a few things to clarify...
The "mystery buyer" of 100 A320 appears to be Air China and Shenzen. Compare the numbers that Airbus reports to the numbers when the upcoming order was announced back in May.
I have no clue however who is the unidentified customer for the 20 A320neo. Loong was reported to have ordered 20 A320 at the end of December, but this should be a mix of 11 A320ceo and 9 A320neo and this order is missing in the 2013 table.
There are quite a few A320ceo&neo orders to be firmed up in 2014:

• VietJet for 20 ceo and 42 neo
• Qingdao for 5 ceo and 18 neo
• Spring for 30 ceo
• Lybian Wings for 4 neo
• Hong Kong Aviation for 60 neo
• CASC for 42 ceo (but that could disappear now that individual chinese airlines place orders themselves)

as well as

• Doric for 20 A380
• Chinese airlines for some more A330

So the offical goal of  book-to-bill just simply greater than 1 does not seem overambitious. Chinese airlines are still behind in the race for reengined narrowbodies, despite the 100 A320 order and probably some of the unidentified orders for the B737MAX coming from China. So I guess we will see some more A320neo and B737MAX (maybe also CSeries) orders from China this year.
An announcement to increase production for the A320ceo before production ends and for the A320neo to a range of about 50 per month seems to be inevitable and we should expect it soon.

The possibility of a A330neo was downplayed by Airbus officials yesterday. It would be just one option and not the main one...of course they have to downplay the possibility as long as possible as they have to protect sales of the existing model. But I would not be surprised if we would see a move in the first half of the year.

Strong 5th season at Boeing

As expected not only Airbus had a "fifth season" in 2013 but also Boeing.

And these are the final numbers:

Gross:
1208 B737 (699 -MAX, 509 -NG)
    17 B747-8
      2 B767
   121 B777
   183 B787
 1531

Net:
1046 B737 (699 -MAX,  347 -NG)
    12 B747-8
      2 B767
  113 B777
  182 B787
1355

Especially the B737NG and the B737MAX had very strong order intakes in December 2013.
All in all 124 B737MAX and 143 B737NG orders were recorded. All but the order for 75 B737MAX and 11 B737-800 were from unidentified customers. Chinese airlines and jet Airways (for 50 B737MAX) are hot suspects for these.
The situation for the B737NG as I described here is a little better now but still Boeing has to sell about 690 B737NG's to fill all productio slots until the B737MAX takes over full B737 production.

One thing that is clear even before the Airbus numbers will be published next Monday is that despite the large December order intakes Airbus outsold Boeing with the A320neo against the B737MAX as Airbus sold 759 A320neo until the end of November. But the recent win at Air Canada (which is not reflected in the 2013 numbers) and flydubai could hint that that could change in 2014 as with the recent announcement of production increases to 47/month for the B737 line Boeing can offer fresh delivery slots. We will see how soon Airbus will hit back...