The efficiency (SFC) of the LEAP engine for the B737RE (I call it the LEAP-2B as I think it needs a different, aka smaller core) very much depends on the fan diameter, as with a larger fan you can have a higher bypass ratio, enabling a smaller Fan Pressure Ratio (FPR), which translates in a higher propulsive efficiency.
For now there are four fan sizes in discussion, reportedly ranging from 63" to 70". The lower end represents
7/22/2011
7/20/2011
B737RE!
So we have another reengining programme! American Airlines just announced to purchase up to 300 B737 aircraft (as well as up to 625(!) A320neo). The more inportant detail of this message is that 100 (+60 options) of the B737NG's will be powered by the LEAP-X, unofficially launching the reengining program of the B737NG, as this needs confirmation by the Boeing board.
What does that tell us?
What does that tell us?
7/19/2011
Boeing B737 whatever...???
I pledged to not write another part of the "...successor" story, so I named it differently. Scott Hamilton once again broke the news: Boeing is now leaning towards reengining. If that would really happen, this would be what John Leahy always expected (and so did I).
If we recap all what has been said before it becomes clear, why a reengining would be the best possible action for Boeing. Of course, a new airplane could be better by about 10% in operating costs, but at what cost and risk for Boeing? Just look at another story published yesterday by Scott Hamilton about the latest round in B787 delivery delays! It will take a few years for Boeing to get in a position where they earn some money with the B787. And with the refined A350-1000 Boeing might now feel the pressure to do something with the B777 earlier than planned before. The Y3(B777 successor) was currently planned around 2025, but with the A350-1000 arriving in 2017/2018, that could move to somewhere around 2020. That moves the Y1 (B737 successor) to the second half of the 2020's - and meanwhile, say in 2017 a reengined B737 could appear. Capital requirements for that, if true what Hamilton writes, should be in the same $1-1.5bn range as the A320neo program - probably a little less than Airbus's costs, as we can assume that we will only see one engine on the B737RE - a LEAP-2B, how I would call it for now: with a smaller, scaled down core, a fan with the maximum possible diameter to fit under the wing without nose gear extension.
The technical risk is minimal, compared to the risk of a new airplane a la B787. Additionally, Boeing will see if the LEAP engine will work as anticipated when entering service on the A320neo.
If we recap all what has been said before it becomes clear, why a reengining would be the best possible action for Boeing. Of course, a new airplane could be better by about 10% in operating costs, but at what cost and risk for Boeing? Just look at another story published yesterday by Scott Hamilton about the latest round in B787 delivery delays! It will take a few years for Boeing to get in a position where they earn some money with the B787. And with the refined A350-1000 Boeing might now feel the pressure to do something with the B777 earlier than planned before. The Y3(B777 successor) was currently planned around 2025, but with the A350-1000 arriving in 2017/2018, that could move to somewhere around 2020. That moves the Y1 (B737 successor) to the second half of the 2020's - and meanwhile, say in 2017 a reengined B737 could appear. Capital requirements for that, if true what Hamilton writes, should be in the same $1-1.5bn range as the A320neo program - probably a little less than Airbus's costs, as we can assume that we will only see one engine on the B737RE - a LEAP-2B, how I would call it for now: with a smaller, scaled down core, a fan with the maximum possible diameter to fit under the wing without nose gear extension.
The technical risk is minimal, compared to the risk of a new airplane a la B787. Additionally, Boeing will see if the LEAP engine will work as anticipated when entering service on the A320neo.
6/30/2011
CFM power
Scott Hamilton has a piece about how GE and CFM are able to win so many engine competitions and for that went deep into the Republic deal for 40 A319neo and 40 A320neo, to be equipped with the LEAP-1A.
After reading the story I went on and looked at a few public databases, where you can check out which airlines owns which aircraft, with which engines they are equipped and who is (eventually) the lessor of the aircraft.
I was interested in the airlines which already ordered the A320neo, but did not commit to an engine so far. Here are my findings and what they tell me:
1. GoAir: they have a firm order for 72 A320neo
Current fleet: 10 A320 powered by CFM56. They firmed up 10 options for the A320 (classic), no information which engine they choose for these, but I would guess CFM56.
GECAS leases 4 of these aircraft to GoAir.
So both CFM and GECAS have leverage for a deal to sell the LEAP-1A to GoAir. CFM could reduce spare parts pricing for the existing CFM56 and GECAS could lower lease rates.
Now GoAir is reportedly also interested in the CSeries and could announce a deal in July or August.
That gives P&W a leverage to struck a combined deal here, as the PW1524G is the sole engine for the CSeries.
Conclusion: Tie! Everything is possible!
2. Jetblue: Jetblue has a MoU for 40 A320neo
Current fleet: 118 A320 with V2500, 49 E190 with CF34-10E
GECAS leases 13 A320 as well as 35 E190 to Jetblue
At first glance, P&W should have better cards, if one just looks at the A320 engines, but GECAS tries to get a hold here with more leases.
MTU does the MRO for the engines on a power-by-the-hour basis, so they could be involved in a deal for placing the PW1133G on the A320neo's for Jetblue.
Conclusion: It's P&W's to loose - and that's the chance of CFM!
3. Avianca TACA: they have a MoU for 33 A320neo
Current fleet: 42 A320 powered by CFM (mostly Avianca), 30 A320 powered by V2500 (+20 on order)
GECAS leases 14 aircraft to Avianca TACA.
GE has a dedicated MRO shop for the CFM56-5 in Brasil.
Conclusion: CFM's to loose. They have clearly more to throw into that deal.
4. LAN/TAM: 20 firm oders (LAN) + MoU for 22 (TAM)
The airlines are in a merger process.
Current fleet: Large A320 family fleet, powered both by the V2500 and the CFM56 - LAN selected the CFM56 last year for a further 50 A320.
GECAS leases 23 aircraft, mostly to TAM.
MTU is providing MRO for the V2500 at TAM.
Conclusion: Close call! CFM and GECAS have slightly more leverage...
5. Garuda Indonesia/Citilink: MoU for 10 A320neo + 25 Options
Current fleet: 78 B737 (Classics and NG) with CFM56
GECAS leases 40 B737 to Garuda.
Conclusion: CFM can hardly loose this one!
6. Transasia: 6 A321neo on firm order
Current fleet: 2 A320 and 5 A321 powered by V2500, 7 ATR powered by PW127
Conclusion: P&W can hardly loose here!
And now look at some prospective customers:
1. Delta Air Lines
Current fleet:
- GE engines are on 105 aircraft
- CFM engines are on 209 aircraft
- GECAS leases14 aircraft to Delta
- PW engines are on 355 aircraft
- IAE engines are on 27 aircraft with 13 more to come (MD-90)
Most PW engines will go away with the replacement (the last DC-9's and the MD-80's), so the P&W leverage is not that big as it looks.
Conclusion: a deciding factor could be the engine commonality with a possible CSeries order!
2. American Airlines
Current fleet:
- GE engines are on 73 aircraft and will be on the 6 ordered B777-300ER
- CFM engines are on 154 aircraft and 54 more ordered B737-800
- GECAS leases 61 aircraft to AA
- PW engines are on the 229 MD-80's, which will then disappear
Conclusion: never heard so far that AA is interested in the CSeries, so this is CFM's to loose.
3. Air France/KLM
Current fleet:
- GE engines are on 146 aircraft
- CFM engine are on 210 aircraft
- GECAS leases just one aircraft to AF/KLM (is that right?)
Conclusion: hopeless for P&W, M. Sarkozy will never let AirFrance order an engine without french content if there is one available.
6/28/2011
Paris Air Show 2011
That was quite an event! I will focus on just some of the most important topics here, the most important of course being
A320NEO
1029 order and commitments! (plus a few more options) - Never ever in history there was an aircraft selling so fast. Of course, a comparison to the B737NG is unfair, as 15 years ago we did not have such big and emerging markets in China , India and all over Asia (more than 460 A320neos are ordered by Asian airlines so far). Also I am sure that a reengined B737NG or a NSA/B797 would sell as good as the A320NEO (or in the case of the – hypothetical – B797 even better). But let us roll back one year: there were many skeptics of the A320neo, saying that demand for such a “warmed-up” aircraft would just not be there. Others said that Airbus might be forced to convert many of the orders for the current A320 to the –neo model. Both are proved wrong today. Even Air Asia boss Tony Fernandes did not manage to convince John Leahy to convert some of the old orders to the –neo.
Now if American Airlines would really decide to order 100 A320neo (probably they are most interested in the A321neo) this summer, there would be lots of activities starting in Chicago and Seattle.
The A320neo brings us right away to the next big topic at this year’s Airshow.
LEAP-1A vs. PW1100G
Before I get started, please read what Addison Schonland wrote in his piece on AirInsight. As I laid out before I have my doubts about the performance claims of the LEAP-1A. And as I heard, CFM did more PW1100G-bashing at his media briefing just ahead of the Airshow than talking about their own product and it’s merits. A rock solid confidence looks different…
Nevertheless, CFM managed to get large deals at the Airshow. The largest, of course, was the order for 400+ engines for the 200 aircraft deal of AirAsia. But this was CFM’s to loose, as they are providing the CFM56 for the current 175 aircraft order from AirAsia, GE won with the CF6-80 for AirAsia’s A330-200 just recently and GE became a sponsor of Tony Fernandes F1 Lotus Team.
I did a prediction about A320neo orders and the respective engine choices just a week before the Airshow opened. I was wrong at SAS and Republic – both choose the LEAP-1A over the PW1100G. As it appears, I underestimated the market power of CFM, GE and GECAS.
I also expressed before that I think there could be an alliance between Airbus and CFM to keep potential CSeries customers away from ordering the Bombardier aircraft by giving them deals they cannot deny. This strategy can work with airlines which have business with CFM, GE and/or GECAS today.
Look at Republic: the whole Frontier fleet is powered by the CFM56 today - about half of the A319 fleet from Frontier is leased through GECAS.
Republic has the largest Embraer EJet fleet in the world, all powered by the CF34-8/-10. Most of the E170 in the fleet of Republic Airlines, one of Republics subsidiaries, is leased from GECAS.
So GECAS, CFM and GE have all possibilities to sweeten the LEAP-1A deal with discounts on spare parts and leasing rates – one thing that Pratt&Whitney can not do.
SAS on the other hand is a large B737NG customer and they also have a CRJ900 fleet powered by the CF34-8. They choose 2nd hand B737-700 over the CSeries earlier this year. This decision was probably more cash driven, as leasing rates for used aircraft are of course cheaper than for new ones and SAS is going through a tough time right now. SAS has also A319 and A321’s in their fleet, powered by the IAE V2500. But firstly the V2500 powered fleet is much smaller than the B737NG fleet, and secondly, PW always has to deal with Rolls Royce on the V2500 business. And as RR has no stakes at all in the –neo business, they have no interest in building a bridge for PW at all.
One A320neo deal that did not materialize in Paris was the anticipated order for 50 aircraft from Qatar Qatar just ordered 6 more of them in Paris ) and CFM powers 4 A340-300 in Qatar ’s fleet, the A320 fleet is powered by the V2500 and PW might to persuade Qatar
CSeries
John Leahy still thinks that Bombardier should scrap the CSeries program. As an Airbus employee he has to say that, regardless of what he thinks.
But as in the weeks before and at the Airshow there were five new customers announced (three of them unnamed so far), I think it became clear that a growing number of airlines got convinced that in this market segment an optimized aircraft is better suited than, say an A319neo. Surprisingly, the CS100 got the biggest chunk of the new orders – maybe something to think about at Embraer…
I guess we will see a few other orders for the CSeries until the end of the year:
- Delta Air Lines
- Qatar
- GoAir, which just ordered 72 A320neo, hinted for a “raft” of CSeries soon to order
Boeing
Boeing did not raise the bar very high in the run-up of the Airshow, but did extremely well with orders, especially on the widebody front. It remains to be seen, if the revised A350-1000 can break the monopoly the B777-300ER enjoys in their segment. A stretched A350-1100X was denied by Airbus officials, but we will see…if the Rolls Royce managers are wise, they build in another 5% thrust margin above the 97klbf in their revised Trent XWB nacelle lines to cover for growth.
Scott Hamilton further explains Boeing’s success – I suggest to read his entry for more.
Other stuff
There was lots of other stuff to talk about – but I won’t, at least for today…
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