5X – what 5X?

During the last weeks Aviation Week had a few articles (here and here) about an alleged new Boeing widebody aircraft code-named -5X. More or less a NMA reloaded, this aircraft would be targeting the A330neo family, but in turn as well the 787-8/9.

Stop –say what? The 787 is right now not selling like hot cakes, but the A330neo not as well and the main reason is COVID-19, although also without the pandemic both aircraft would see lower production rates today than until 2019. So where is the point in developing a new aircraft there? The NMA, which was not able to produce a business case for Boeing, was shelved and was probably almost the same aircraft. Part of the problem back then was that the engine companies did not see the market as attractive as Boeing (officially) did and both CFMI and P&WA only wanted to develop an engine as a sole source.

So where is the reason to believe that now, two years later, it actually looks better for an aircraft like this?

The only thing Boeing should concentrate on is a new Single Aisle aircraft family! If Boeing would start an aircraft like -5X now with an EIS not before 2027, themselves as well as the engine companies would not have the resources to be able to counter an A320neo++ family with a new wing and engines that will then get a performance improvement package from the -5X engine(s). Also, as Scott Hamilton from Leeham writes today, the A220-500 is only a question of when, not if. So the lower end of the B737MAX would get increasing pressure once the - 500 is on the market. The B737MAX would be dead then, "killed" from the A220-550 from the lower end and from the A320neo++ and A321neo++ from the upper end – and in turn BCA would be dead!

But is it possible to design an aircraft family that can compete with the A220-500 on the lower end and a future (possible) A322? No, but the Airbus narrowbody aircraft family has two wings, two fuselages and different engines as well. So a clever scaling of the fuselage and the wings could do the trick for Boeing. Starting with the larger (6 abreast) family, starting just north of today's 737MAX-8 up to a A322 sized aircraft. After that scaling fuselage and wings down to a 5 abreast aircraft with a second or third generation of the PW1500G for example.

Just my 2 cents of course - but I see less than these 2 cents of value in a -5X!