This discussion was initiated by Richard Aboulafia, who predicted a 60% market share for the A320neo. Boeing's VP Marketing Randy Tinseth soon dismissed that, saying that he believes Boeing will have a 50% market share with the B737MAX (and he would do a bad job if he would not do so, of course).
Of course we will not know the real market share until both products will be in service for a number of years and how backlogs and production rates will be then. Today we can only compare the number of orders and how they change over time. The absolute numbers are not an indication itself as Airbus has a production head start with the A320neo and therefore should have more orders in hand.
The A320neo was launched in December 2010 with the first order placed in that month by Virgin America and made public in January 2011.
The B737MAX had a "soft launch" in July 2011 when American Airlines split their narrowbody order between the A320ceo/A320neo and the B737NG/"re-engined" B737. This "re-engined" new version of the B737 later became the B737MAX. The first firm order was recorded in December 2011 and came from Southwest Airlines.
Entry into service of the A320neo will (presumably) be in November 2015, the B737MAX is announced to be ready for launch customer Southwest Airlines in the third quarter of 2017.
So the A320neo has a production head start of around 21 months. Let is assume a production rate of 47 aircraft a month for both aircraft once the production of the A320ceo and the B737NG has ended. Boeing already has announced that rate and I am sure that Airbus will soon at least match that rate.
So Airbus should have around 987 more orders ( 21 months * 47 aircraft/month) than Boeing before deliveries of both re-engined aircraft begins. One could then argue that both aircraft are in equal demand.
So have a look at how the backlog delta between the two models evolved over time:
- In December 2011 the A320neo had 1106 more orders than the B737MAX.
- In December 2012 the A320neo had 670 more orders than the B737MAX.
- In December 2013 the A320neo had 762 more orders than the B737MAX.
- In December 2014 the A320neo had 958 more orders than the B737MAX.
Although it is noticeable that after Boeing had a good order year in 2012 - the first full year where the B737MAX was for sale - Airbus gained more orders for the A320neo again in 2013 and 2014.
And in 2015 it looks good again for Airbus. Avianca announced an MoU for 100 A320neo and we could see the MoU from Indigo for another 250 aircraft converted to a firm order soon (maybe this week at Aero India?) - and with the official launch of the A321neoLR one can expect more orders coming (ALC already has an MoU for 30 of them).
Let's have another look in early 2016 how the numbers look then...
This will be clearly define over the coming years, but I suspect as you do, that this will be dependent on who is building more. If both OEMs build at a rate of 47 per month and are able to deliver those planes, then the amount on each others order book will only serve a numerical point from which to brag about, not much else. Of course the more you have on order, the longer you are able to keep delivering plane, but if you need the best narrow body airplane for certain mission and you cannot get it from one OEM, then more likely you will try the other.
ReplyDeleteSome interesting stats!
ReplyDeleteAirbus currently hold the "in service" lead having 6100 A320's in service compared to Boeing's 5500 737's. This equates to a market split of 53/47!
Narrow body orders again favour Airbus (If we include orders for all narrow bodies - i.e. NG's + MAX's), with Airbus having an order backlog of 5099 aircraft compared to Boeing's order backlog of 4270 aircraft. This equates to an order backlog split of 54.5/45.5.
The average order for the A320NEO is 61 aircraft where the average size order for the 737MAX is 37 aircraft.
Airbus have orders for approximately 850 aircraft from leasors (lessors) where as Boeing has orders for approximately 450 aircraft. The worlds largest Leasor (lessor), AeroCap is yet to order the 737MAX.
Airbus and Boeing have both lost two customers to the competing air frame (Airbus - Air Canada & SilkAir, Boeing - Pegasus & Air Berlin), but Boeing have lost more orders where the airline has decided to dual supply (American Airlines, United Airlines, Norwegian, LionAir).
Airbus have more orders from airlines who have ordered more aircraft than they currently have in their fleet (i.e. Air Asia - current fleet 182 aircraft, orders 347 aircraft). Conversely, Boeing have more orders from airlines who have ordered less aircraft than they currently have in their fleet (i.e. Virgin Australia - Current fleet 65 aircraft, orders 23 aircraft).
Some interesting stats!
ReplyDeleteAirbus currently hold the "in service" lead having 6100 A320's in service compared to Boeing's 5500 737's. This equates to a market split of 53/47!
Narrow body orders again favour Airbus (If we include orders for all narrow bodies - i.e. NG's + MAX's), with Airbus having an order backlog of 5099 aircraft compared to Boeing's order backlog of 4270 aircraft. This equates to an order backlog split of 54.5/45.5.
The average order for the A320NEO is 61 aircraft where the average size order for the 737MAX is 37 aircraft.
Airbus have orders for approximately 850 aircraft from leasors (lessors) where as Boeing has orders for approximately 450 aircraft. The worlds largest Leasor (lessor), AeroCap is yet to order the 737MAX.
Airbus and Boeing have both lost two customers to the competing air frame (Airbus - Air Canada & SilkAir, Boeing - Pegasus & Air Berlin), but Boeing have lost more orders where the airline has decided to dual supply (American Airlines, United Airlines, Norwegian, LionAir).
Airbus have more orders from airlines who have ordered more aircraft than they currently have in their fleet (i.e. Air Asia - current fleet 182 aircraft, orders 347 aircraft). Conversely, Boeing have more orders from airlines who have ordered less aircraft than they currently have in their fleet (i.e. Virgin Australia - Current fleet 65 aircraft, orders 23 aircraft).
"Airbus currently hold the "in service" lead having 6100 A320's in service compared to Boeing's 5500 737's. This equates to a market split of 53/47!"
ReplyDeleteI suspect that you are taking Boeing numbers from a year and a half ago. You should probably add another 600 to the B737 totals. Don't know how recent the A320 total is, but I believe that combined the B737clasic and next NG (which entered service a the end of 1997, almost 10 years after the A320) should be equal or have as very small lead.