Farnborough Preview

There are already some previews out there, for example from Leeham and airchive, so I won’t repeat all that is said there…but:

A330neo

Of course the BIG question is if Airbus will launch the A330neo at the show – and not, if they will launch it or not. Even if Airbus officials always state that  a final decision has not been made – that may be true from a formal perspective, but the decision has already been made by the potential customers who would otherwise turn to Boeing, at least some of them. This would not be an option for Airbus, of course.

My guess is that Airbus will at least make an “ATO launch”, but recent stories from reuters and Bloomberg suggest that Airbus is looking for last-minute commitments from the likes of AirAsia and ALC to make a launch like we have seen it from Boeing for the B777X at the Dubai Air Show last year.

Narrowbodies

Indigo will likely go ahead with an order for another 200 A320neo’s, Bloomberg reports today. This has to be seen in the context of the forthcoming IPO and a possible future shareholder stake from Qatar Airways. Indigo would then not only grow further in the indian domestic market, but also become the feeder from the whole indian subcontinent for the Qatar Airways longhaul fleet out of Doha.

Monarch reportedly switches to Boeing – a blow to Airbus of course, but this deal is probably driven by commercial terms which do not leave a big margin for both aircraft and engine manufacturers.

There could be a number of additional orders in the narrowbody market as usual, especially on the Airbus side. Boeing could announce a number of undisclosed customers for the B737MAX.

Not sure if Bombardier can announce something. Monarch adding the CSeries to the larger B737MAX (I expect only the -8 and -9 here) would make sense, but Scott Hamilton is not very optimistic on that one.

Widebodies

I refer to Leeham and airchive here…

Regionals

I expect Embraer to announce one or more orders for the E2 family, maybe a second lessor. Maybe also some E1 sales…

ATR will for sure have some sales for the ATR72-600. Bombardier always finds it hard to be able to announce during a show due to strict disclosure rules in Canada.

I do not expect anything from Mitsubishi for the MRJ…

Narrowbody engines

This is where we can expect large deals to be announced. American Airlines choosing the LEAP-1A already leaked. A logical choice as GE, CFM and GECAS have great leverage to sweeten the deal with non-neo issues.

Also we can expect that easyjet announced their choice of engines for the A320neo fleet. Any other choice than CFM would be a surprise, for the same reasons as for the AA decision. The same could be said for Lion Air, although there were rumours earlier they would opt for the PW1100G-JM. There are a number of other open A320neo decisions where the direction is not so clear (VivaAerobus, Philippine Airlines, Interjet, Transaero, China Eastern, China Southern, …)

Widebody Engines

The RR Trent1000 to be the choice for the A330neo  now seems to be a given. GE could make some deals with the GE9X of course, RR with the A350 if orders materialize for the respective aircraft. Other than that nothing to exciting here.

 

The devil is in the detail - it does not look too boring neither too exciting as yet. But there could be "unknown unknowns"...