John D. Godyn - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
That's very helpful. And Steve, you mentioned the A330 NEO. I was wondering if you had any sort of initial thoughts that you'd care to share?
Steven F. Udvar-Hazy - Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, we've had a lot of going back and forth with Airbus, with the engine manufacturers, with a number of airlines that have sort of raised their hand as potential launch or co-launch customers for the airplane. Basically, I think what Airbus is evaluating is a new generation of A330-200s and 300s with engines that are of more current technology and are being currently devised or in operation, derivatives of engines already in operation that would offer a double-digit increase in efficiency and fuel savings. And I think Airbus is looking at that very carefully as a possible alternative to the A350-800.
What do we learn from that:
- The A330neo will be launched at the Farnborough Airshow!
- ALC will be one of the launch customers.
- There will (probably) be a A330-200neo, not just a A330-300neo.
Anybody wants to bet against that?`
Not that I think that everything that SUH says and wants is becoming reality: SUH was one of the vocal opponents of the A320neo before it was getting launched. I remember him argueing against the A320neo at the european ISTAT meeting in October 2010, telling the audience that the benefits in fuelburn and noise were not much more than a PR gag. Reality told us otherwise meanwhile and ALC is a large customer for the A320neo as well as the Boeing counterpart, the B737MAX.
Now, in the case of the A330neo, he does not see the fuelburn (and noise as well) benefit as a PR benefit only. Life is everlasting learning...
An A33X Series NEO complete "Family" approach would better the commercial attraction of the idea, as the inital investment may be spread over a greater number of sales. The extension of the NEO-isation to e.g. include an A336, with the 61 meter long cabin of the A340-600, would provide the market with a serious 'Regional Mega-Twin' opposite to 777. Airbus are developing a specific Know-How Cluster centering upon 'no-nonsense' (quick/cheap/low-risk) re-engining - with first a two years' head-start for the NEO (2015) vs MAX (2017) narrow-body feeders and now again Aiirbus are plausibly getting an even better head-start for its WB A330 work-horse (NEO ---> 2018) vs Boeing's 777 (MAX ---> 2021/22 ?)
ReplyDeleteJust an A330-300 NEO never seemed an option. Airbus indicated A332F and MRTT as opportunities too. Low risk extension would be A333F and a bigger MRTT -300 using the F's cargo deck and raised nose wheel.
ReplyDeleteAnother option would be be to stretch both 200 and 300 just enough to offer better seat and cargo capasity using 8 abreast 18 inch seats then the 787-8 and -9 using 17 inch seats 9 abreast.
I wonder if the NEO will have the F nose gear leveling the cabin, increasing rest value for conversion and enabling higher BPR, more fuel efficient engines. Or develop an all new nose gear, or leave it as is..
An option would be to offer preparations for cargo conversion after a dedicated lifetime via Airbus EFW.
ReplyDeleteI cannot see an A330-200NEO as big seller as the B787-8 & -9 appears as more attractive solution.
An A330-200NEO and the A330-300NEO will provide value to some customers who want a cheaper solution than going with the 787-8 or 787-10. The challenge will be to what impact these programs have on the A350 family. Long term the A350 will suffer because the lower size programs will be given away to the 787 family. You sell 300 frames and long term you lose the customers wanting overall family solutions.
ReplyDeleteA little bit of engine, a little bit of wing and perhaps an A350 cockpit and we have the Airbus equivalent of the 737NG.That didnt do too bad!
ReplyDeleteThe 737NG wasnt just a little bit of wing and a little bit of engine. It was the same engine with an entirely new wing.
DeleteLOI's for 200 from AirAsia, Delta, UPS and FEDEX (A330F NEO) would do the trick.
ReplyDeleteThe difference between the situation of the MAX/NEO vs the A330 re-engine at least from the ALC (lessor) position is that on the MAX/NEO the engines were completely new development, thus risky. Conversely, with the A330 re-engine the engine options both exist and are currently in service on the 787.
ReplyDelete