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8/05/2011

The 130 seater market

The launch of the CSeries in July 2008 initiated many discussions about the market those two aircraft are placed: the 110-130 seater market.
Let's have a quick look in the 130 seater market,
 as this one is clear defined - before the CS300 was launched there was only the B737-700 and the A319 avaible.
I looked at the backlog as it was in July 2008, as it is today (July 31st. 2011) and  how many aircraft were delivered in between.
I counted only the aircraft ordered and delivered to airlines, not to private customers.
One can find from that numbers that there have been 232 cancellations for the B737-700 and 208 cancellations for the A319 during that time. Most of these cancellations were "just" conversions to the B737-800 or -900 or to the A320/A321.
During the same time the CS300 got 72 orders. Not a big number, but I guess there is more to come this year.

My conclusions:
  1. The 130 seater market was a shrinking market over the last years, as rising fuel prices favor larger aircraft, making the 737-800 and the A320 more attractive.
  2. The CS300 with the GTF technology can deliver seta mile costs in the 130 seater class which are below today's 150-180 seaters, thus making this aircraft class attractive again.
  3. The time of both the A319 and the B737-700 are over. We have to see how the A319neo and the B737-700RE can compete with the CS300 over the long time.
  4. As it is now clear that both Airbus and Boeing are not competing with a true "next generation" product in the 130 seater class, there is a good chance we will see a second entrant: Embraer will decide by the end of this year how they tackle the CS300...

2 comments:

  1. FFAugust 8, 2011 at 5:12 PM

    The CSeries moves into a niche already vacated by Airbus and Boeing as they move customers away from the A319 and 737-700 towards the A320 and 737-800.

    Therefore the CSeries competes against the A320 and 737-800, not the A319 and 737-800. Can they persuade airlines that have happily upgraded to the larger planes to downgrade again? The answer to that question determines whether the Cseries will sell in the thousands or in the hundreds.

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  2. aeroturbopowerAugust 10, 2011 at 7:51 AM

    FF,

    I don't think Bombardier is targeting primarily airlines which are flying the 738 or the A320. But if traffic on a particular route is falling to a level where using a smaller aircraft makes sense, the CS has it's shot. Look at the marketing material from Embraer - trhey are talking about airlines doring "right-sizing", i.e. using E190/195 now where they had aircraft liek B737-500 of MD-80's (or even A319/B737-700) before.
    But the primary targets for Bombardier should be airlines flying aircraft like the E190/195 today If their traffic is rising, the next step could be a CS300.

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